Weekend #6 of 2015 is looking like $108 million for the top 12 films this weekend, well below the normal volume for this weekend ($133 million).
Opening at around 3,500 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water from Paramount should average $8,750 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $30.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews yet at RottenTomatoes are an encouraging 73% positive so far. Sponge Out of Water is on track for around $99 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $71 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $170 million. This would be above $140.2 million worldwide total for The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (released 11.19.2004) with $85.4 million total domestic and $54.7 million total overseas.
Opening at around 3,150 theaters Friday, Jupiter Ascending from Warner Brothers should average $5,950 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an $18.5 million opening weekend). In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a soft 36% positive score. Jupiter Ascending is on track for around $43 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $75 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $118 million.
Opening at about 2,800 theaters Friday, Seventh Son from Universal should average $2,750 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $7.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Seventh Son is on track for around $15 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in another $25 $105 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $40 $120 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 6-8, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | PG | 73% | 30.5 | 99 | |
| Jupiter Ascending | WB | PG13 | 36% | 18.5 | 43 | |
| Seventh Son | Uni | PG13 | n/a | 7.5 | 15 | |
American Sniper should fall out of first place finally, but it remains the only significant holdover and still a very significant one.
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RETURNING FILMS February 6-8, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| American Sniper | WB | -31% | 21.3 | 350 | |
| Paddington | Weins | -9% | 5.2 | 67 | |
| Project Almanac | Par | -46% | 4.5 | 17 | |
| Black or White | Rel | -33% | 4.2 | 19 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | -23% | 3.9 | 85 | |
| Wedding Ringer | Sony | -56% | 3.7 | 67 | |
| Boy Next Door | Uni | -44% | 3.4 | 34 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $133 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 22nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $138 million (while 2013 was $86 million, 2012 was $173 million and 2011 was $135 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly soft $108 million, down -19% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -22% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
2.7.2014
The LEGO Movie WB PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $45 Actual: $69
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $256 Actual: $258
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $210
The Monuments Men Sony PG13 George Clooney Matt Damon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $81 Actual: $78
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $77
Vampire Academy Weins PG13 Lucy Fry Sarah Hyland
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
2.8.2013
Identity Thief Uni R Jason Bateman Melissa McCarthy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $35
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $129 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $39
Side Effects Open Road R Jude Law Rooney Mara
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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