Weekend #13 of 2015 is looking like $123 million for the top 12 films this weekend, slightly below the comparable weekends the past few years.
Opening at around 3,150 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Get Hard from Warner Brothers should average $9,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $29.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not very good: 44% positive overall. Get Hard is on track for around $93 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $41 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $134 million.
Opening at 3,600 theaters Friday, Home from Fox should average $7,800 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $28.0 million opening weekend). Early reviews are also soft: 39% positive so far. Home is on track for around $105 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in about $170 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $275 million.
Opening at around 1,200 theaters Friday, It Follows from Radius-TWC should average $3,200 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $3.8 million opening weekend). A strong 94% positive score at RottenTomatoes. No domestic or overseas estimates yet.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 27-29, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Get Hard | WB | R | 44% | 29.0 | 93 | |
| Home | Fox | PG | 39% | 28.0 | 105 | |
| It Follows | Radius | R | 94% | 3.8 | n/a | |
Insurgent and Cinderella now are the main holdovers in theaters, each somewhat above $20 million this weekend.
|
RETURNING FILMS March 27-29, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | -56% | 23.3 | 135 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | -41% | 20.5 | 212 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | -30% | 3.3 | 130 | |
| Run All Night | WB | -43% | 2.9 | 32 | |
| The Gunman | OpenRoad | -50% | 2.5 | 8 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | -32% | 2.4 | 34 | |
| Do You Believe? | PureFlix | -35% | 2.4 | 8 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $131 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 24th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $131 million (while 2013 was $140 million, 2012 was $140 million and 2011 was $114 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a slightly sub-par $123 million, down -6% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down the same -6% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
3.28.2014
Noah Par PG13 Russell Crowe Jennifer Connelly
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $37 Actual: $44
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $113 Actual: $101
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $261
Bad Words Uni R Jason Bateman Kathryn Hahn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $12 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Cesar Chavez LG/Sum PG13 Michael Pena John Malkovich
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Grand Budapest Hotel Fox R Ralph Fiennes Adrien Brody
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $114
Sabotage Open Road R Arnold Schwarzenegger Malin Akerman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
3.29.2013
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par PG13 The Rock Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $136 Actual: $122
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $253
Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor LG/Sum PG13 Vanessa Williams Kim Kardashian
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $58 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
The Host Open Road PG13 Saoirse Ronan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
