Weekend #15 of 2015 is looking like $130 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat above the norm for this weekend but a touch below the same weekend last year.
Opening at around 3,300 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Longest Ride from Fox should average $4,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $15.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not so hot: 40% positive overall. The Longest Ride is on track for around $35 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $10 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $45 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 10-12, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Longest Ride | Fox | PG13 | 40% | 15.5 | 30 | |
Furious 7 will be the biggest holdover of course this weekend and still #1 for the weekend by far. Home gets honorable mention as the next most significant holdover this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS April 10-12, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Furious 7 | Uni | -57% | 63.5 | 355 | |
| Home | Fox | -33% | 18.0 | 165 | |
| Get Hard | WB | -43% | 7.5 | 85 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | -30% | 7.1 | 198 | |
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | -42% | 5.9 | 127 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | +144% | 5.1 | n/a | |
| It Follows | Weins | -26% | 1.9 | 16 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $116 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 35th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $133 million (while 2013 was $109 million, 2012 was $107 million and 2011 was $117 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $130 million, up +12% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down -2% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
4.11.2014
Rio 2 Fox G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $39
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $130 Actual: $131
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $369
Oculus Rel R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $36 Actual: $28
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Draft Day LG/Sum PG13 Kevin Costner Jennifer Garner
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
4.12.2013
42 WB PG13 Chadwick Boseman Harrison Ford
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $101 Actual: $95
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Scary Movie V Weins PG13 Lindsay Lohan Charlie Sheen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $30 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46
Place Beyond the Pines FOC R Ryan Gosling Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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