Weekend Box Office Predictions 4.17-19.2015

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Weekend #16 of 2015 is looking like $119 million for the top 12 films this weekend, right in line with the norm for this weekend.

Opening at around 3,600 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 from Sony should average $6,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $24.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are brutal: 0% positive overall in the very early going. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is on track for around $74 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $35 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $109 million.  This would be way down from the $183.3 million worldwide for Paul Blart: Mall Cop (released 1.16.2009) with $146.3 million domestic and $37.0 million overseas.

Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, Unfriended from Universal should average $7,500 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $19.5 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are very supportive: 88% positive overall, a huge number for a horror film. Unfriended is on track for around $58 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $55 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $113 million.

Just in time for Earth Day and opening at around 2,000 theaters Friday, Monkey Kingdom from Disney and DisneyNature should average $2,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $5.3 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are loving: 100% positive overall in early reviews. Monkey Kingdom is on track for around $21 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $9 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $30 million.  This would be above last year’s DisneyNature film Bears ($18.1 million worldwide) and closer to 2011’s African Cats ($30.9 million worldwide) and 2012’s Chimpanzee ($34.8 million worldwide).  But nowhere near the glory days of the first two DisneyNature films: 2010’s Oceans ($82.7 million worldwide) and especially the first in 2009, Earth ($109 million worldwide).