Articles

April 1, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 4.3-5.2015

Weekend #14 of 2015 is looking like $192 million for the top 12 films this weekend, way above the norm for this weekend and heading for a record volume.

Opening at around 3,900 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Furious 7 from Universal should average $30,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $117.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.]  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are amazingly strong: 87% positive overall.  Furious 7 is on track for around $290 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $600 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $890 million.

That would be the best Fast and Furious film yet.  A remarkably well-managed franchise that would have been left for dead after the Tokyo Drift misfire 95% of the time:

  • Fast & Furious 6 (5.24.2013) $238.7 million domestic, $550.0 million overseas, $788.7 million worldwide
  • Fast Five (4.29.2011) $209.8 million domestic, $416.3 million overseas, $626.1 million worldwide
  • Fast and Furious (4.3.2009) $155.1 million domestic, $208.1 million overseas, $363.2 million worldwide
  • The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (4.16.2006) $62.5 million domestic, $96.0 million overseas, $158.5 million worldwide
  • 2 Fast 2 Furious (6.6.2003) $127.2 million domestic, $109.2 million overseas, $236.4 million worldwide
  • The Fast and the Furious (6.22.2001) $144.5 million domestic, $62.8 million overseas, $207.3 million worldwide

Opening at 250 theaters Friday, Woman in Gold from Weinstein should average $4,800 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $1.2 million opening weekend). Early reviews are actually quite mediocre: 53% positive so far.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

April 3-5, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Furious 7 Uni PG13 87% 117.5 290
Woman in Gold Weins PG13 53% 1.2 n/a
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Home and Get Hard are the best of the holdovers on an otherwise fairly soft bench.

RETURNING FILMS

April 3-5, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Home Fox -44% 29.0 175
Get Hard WB -54% 15.6 100
Insurgent LG/Sum -53% 10.2 133
Cinderella Dis -43% 9.8 199
It Follows Weins -41% 2.3 17
Kingsman: The Secret Service  Fox -44% 1.7 130
Do You Believe? PureFlix -31% 1.6 9
Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS -41% 1.3 34

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $126 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 25th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $159 million (while 2013 was $127 million, 2012 was $117 million and 2011 was $103 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $192 million, up +52% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +21% from the same weekend last year.   

 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

4.4.2014

Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis PG13 Chris Evans Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $90 Actual: $95
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $255 Actual: $260
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $455

4.5.2013

Jurassic Park 3D Uni PG13 Sam Neill Laura Dern
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $71

Evil Dead Sony R Jane Levy Shiloh Fernandez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.