Weekend #20 of 2015 is looking like $157 million for the top 12 films this weekend, very close to the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,400 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Pitch Perfect 2 from Universal should average a very good $15,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $53.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are supportive: 73% positive overall. Pitch Perfect 2 is on track for around $140 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $165 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $305 million.
That would be well above the $113.0 million worldwide for the sleeper Pitch Perfect (released 9.28.2012) with $65.0 million domestic and $48.0 million overseas.
Opening at around 3,550 theaters Friday, Mad Max: Fury Road from Warner Brothers should average $12,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $43.5 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are nearly unanimous: 99% positive overall. Mad Max: Fury Road is on track for around $135 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $295 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $430 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 15-17, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | PG13 | 73% | 53.0 | 140 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | R | 99% | 43.5 | 135 | |
Avengers: Age of Ultron continue to be the sole significant holdover.
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RETURNING FILMS May 15-17, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | -53% | 36.2 | 495 | |
| Hot Pursuit | WB | -55% | 6.3 | 30 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | -37% | 3.4 | 68 | |
| Age of Adaline | LG/Sum | -42% | 3.4 | 42 | |
| Furious 7 | Uni | -44% | 3.0 | 353 | |
| Home | Fox | -37% | 2.2 | 162 | |
| Ex Machina | A24 | -37% | 2.2 | 25 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | -37% | 1.1 | 32 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $153 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 12th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $170 million (while 2013 was $148 million, 2012 was $136 million and 2011 was $159 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a steady $157 million, up +2% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down -8% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
5.16.2014
Godzilla WB PG13 Aaron Johnson Bryan Cranston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $73 Actual: $93
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $214 Actual: $201
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $328
Million Dollar Arm Dis PG Jon Hamm Bill Paxton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
5.17.2013
Star Trek Into Darkness Par PG13 Chris Pine Zachary Quinto
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $87 Actual: $71
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $244 Actual: $229
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $239
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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