Weekend #21 of 2015 is looking like $162 million for the top 12 films this weekend, well below the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,800 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Tomorrowland from Disney should average an okay $9,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $37.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are barely positive: 58% positive overall but the numbers has been dropping as more critics are counted. Tomorrowland is on track for around $105 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $230 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $335 million.
Looking at other Disney movies inspired by Disney theme park attractions, nothing comes close to the Pirates franchise that peaked at $1.066 billion worldwide for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (released 7.7.2006) with $423.3 million domestic and $642.9 million overseas. But Tomorrowland should be comfortably above the $182.3 million worldwide for The Haunted Mansion (released 11.26.2003) with $75.9 million domestic and $106.4 million overseas and well above the disastrous $18.0 million worldwide for The Country Bears (released 7.26.2002) with $16.9 million domestic and $1.1 million overseas.
Opening at around 3,200 theaters Friday, Poltergeist from Fox should average $7,900 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $25.0 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not kind: 33% positive overall. Poltergeist is on track for around $65 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in another $75 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $140 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 22-24 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | 4-Day Fri-Mon Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Tomorrowland | Dis | PG | 58% | 37.0 | 45.9 | 105 | |
| Poltergeist | Fox | PG13 | 33% | 25.0 | 30.0 | 65 | |
Now a trio of holdovers provide much needed support at the weekend box office.
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RETURNING FILMS May 22-24, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Pitch Perfect 2 | Uni | -48% | 35.8 | 178 | |
| Mad Max: Fury Road | WB | -42% | 26.2 | 140 | |
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | -38% | 23.9 | 462 | |
| Hot Pursuit | WB | -43% | 3.3 | 32 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | -30% | 2.5 | 70 | |
| Furious 7 | Uni | -37% | 2.3 | 353 | |
| Home | Fox | -19% | 2.1 | 162 | |
| Age of Adaline | LG/Sum | -41% | 1.9 | 43 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $198 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 1st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $179 million (while 2013 was $249 million, 2012 was $146 million and 2011 was $216 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a not so dazzling $162 million, down -18% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -9% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
5.23.2014
X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox PG13 Hugh Jackman James McAvoy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $99 Actual: $91
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $246 Actual: $234
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $514
Blended WB PG13 Adam Sandler Drew Barrymore
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $81
5.24.2013
Fast & Furious 6 Uni PG13 Vin Diesel Jordana Brewster
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $81 Actual: $97
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $257 Actual: $239
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $550
The Hangover Part III WB R Bradley Cooper Ed Helms
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $54 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $127 Actual: $112
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $250
Epic Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $107
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $161
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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