May 25, 2016

Weekend Box Office Predictions 5.27-29.2016

Weekend #22 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films:


May 27-29, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Fri-Mon Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
X-Men: Apocalypse Fox PG13 52% 68.5 85.2 195 550 745
Alice Through the Looking Glass Dis PG 39% 49.5 61.7 145 295 440
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.  The Overseas Total is also a ShowBuzzDaily projection based on similar movies and their performance outside North America.



May 27-29, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Captain America: Civil War Dis -41% 19.4 425
Angry Birds Movie Sony -53% 18.0 135
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising Uni -58% 9.2 70
The Jungle Book Dis -41% 6.4 361
The Nice Guys WB -45% 6.1 42
Money Monster Sony -59% 2.9 44


A look at last week’s opening weekend forecast accuracy:

  • Angry Birds Movie: $39.5 million predicted and $38.2 million actual
  • Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising: $38.5 million predicted and $21.8 million actual
  • The Nice Guys: $16.0 million predicted and $11.2 million actual

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.