Weekend #29 of 2015 is looking like $195 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat above the norm for this weekend and way above last year’s very soft weekend (see comparisons below).
Ant-Man from Disney and Marvel should open with a $64.5 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are decent: 75% positive overall so far. Ant-Man is on track for around $190 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $230 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $420 million.
This would be slightly above the recent second-tier Marvel films such as X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($373 million worldwide) and Captain America: The First Avenger ($371 million worldwide).
Trainwreck from Universal should open with a $27.5 million three-day weekend. Very strong critical reception: 92% positive reviews so far. Trainwreck is on track for around $100 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $85 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $185 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 17-19, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Ant-Man | Dis | PG | 75% | 64.5 | 190 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | R | 92% | 27.5 | 100 | |
Inside Out and Jurassic World remain the top holdovers this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS July 17-19, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Minions | Uni | -51% | 57.1 | 311 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | -40% | 10.6 | 353 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | -43% | 10.3 | 658 | |
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | -52% | 6.6 | 103 | |
| Magic Mike XXL | WB | -44% | 5.4 | 77 | |
| The Gallows | WB | -66% | 3.3 | 18 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | -53% | 2.7 | 85 | |
| Self/less | FOC | -57% | 2.3 | 6 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $180 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 6th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $135 million (while 2013 was $181 million, 2012 was $224 million and 2011 was $181 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very respectable $195 million, up +8% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a big +45% from the same weekend last year, which was really lame.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
7.18.2014
Planes: Fire & Rescue Dis PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92
Sex Tape Sony R Jason Segel Cameron Diaz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $39
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $88
The Purge: Anarchy Uni R Frank Grillo Zach Gilford
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $77 Actual: $72
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $39
7.19.2013
The Conjuring WB R Patrick Wilson Vera Farmiga
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $147 Actual: $137
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $181
Turbo Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $96 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $200
Red 2 LG/Sum PG13 Bruce Willis John Malkovich
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $58 Actual: $53
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $95
R.I.P.D. Uni PG13 Jeff Bridges Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $45
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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