Articles

July 15, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 7.17-19.2015

Weekend #29 of 2015 is looking like $195 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat above the norm for this weekend and way above last year’s very soft weekend (see comparisons below).  

Ant-Man from Disney and Marvel should open with a $64.5 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are decent: 75% positive overall so far. Ant-Man is on track for around $190 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $230 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $420 million.

This would be slightly above the recent second-tier Marvel films such as X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($373 million worldwide) and Captain America: The First Avenger ($371 million worldwide).

Trainwreck from Universal should open with a $27.5 million three-day weekend. Very strong critical reception: 92% positive reviews so far. Trainwreck is on track for around $100 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $85 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $185 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

July 17-19, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Ant-Man Dis PG 75% 64.5 190
Trainwreck Uni R 92% 27.5 100
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Inside Out
and Jurassic World remain the top holdovers this weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

July 17-19, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Minions Uni -51% 57.1 311
Inside Out Dis -40% 10.6 353
Jurassic World Uni -43% 10.3 658
Terminator: Genisys Par -52% 6.6 103
Magic Mike XXL WB -44% 5.4 77
The Gallows WB -66% 3.3 18
Ted 2 Uni -53% 2.7 85
Self/less FOC -57% 2.3 6

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $180 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 6th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $135 million (while 2013 was $181 million, 2012 was $224 million and 2011 was $181 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very respectable $195 million, up +8% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up a big +45% from the same weekend last year, which was really lame. 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

7.18.2014

Planes: Fire & Rescue Dis PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92

Sex Tape Sony R Jason Segel Cameron Diaz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $39
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $88

The Purge: Anarchy Uni R Frank Grillo Zach Gilford
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $77 Actual: $72
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $39

7.19.2013

The Conjuring WB R Patrick Wilson Vera Farmiga
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $147 Actual: $137
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $181

Turbo Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $96 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $200

Red 2 LG/Sum PG13 Bruce Willis John Malkovich
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $58 Actual: $53
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $95

R.I.P.D. Uni PG13 Jeff Bridges Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $45

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.