Weekend #30 of 2015 is looking like $170 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).
Pixels from Sony should open with a $37.5 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are dreadful: 11% positive overall so far. Pixels is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $120 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $215 million.
Paper Towns from Fox should open with a $26.5 million three-day weekend. Solid critical reception: 75% positive reviews so far. Paper Towns is on track for around $82 million domestic, with significant upside. Overseas the film could bring in $52 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $134 million.
Southpaw from Weinstein Company should open with a $13.5 million three-day weekend. Very mediocre critical reception: 48% positive reviews so far. Southpaw is on track for around $41 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $18 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $59 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 24-26, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Pixels | Sony | PG13 | 11% | 37.5 | 95 | |
| Paper Towns | Fox | PG13 | 75% | 26.5 | 82 | |
| Southpaw | Weins | R | 48% | 13.5 | 41 | |
Ant-Man, Minions and Trainwreck form a solid trio of holdovers providing support for the box office this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS July 24-26, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Ant-Man | Dis | -54% | 26.5 | 170 | |
| Minions | Uni | -51% | 24.2 | 334 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | -39% | 18.4 | 115 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | -35% | 7.4 | 655 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | -37% | 7.3 | 349 | |
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | -58% | 2.3 | 98 | |
| Magic Mike XXL | WB | -52% | 2.1 | 77 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $148 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 17th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $137 million (while 2013 was $158 million, 2012 was $126 million and 2011 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very respectable $170 million, up +15% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +24% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
7.25.2014
Lucy Uni R Scarlett Johansson Morgan Freeman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $44
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $125 Actual: $127
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $332
Hercules Par PG13 Dwayne Johnson Ian McShane
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $73
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $171
And So It Goes Clarius PG13 Michael Douglas Diane Keaton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10
7.26.2013
The Wolverine Fox PG13 Hugh Jackman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $72 Actual: $53
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $132
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $282
The Way, Way Back Fox PG13 Steve Carell Toni Collette
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
Fruitvale Station Weins R Michael B Jordan Octavia Spencer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
The To Do List CBS R Aubrey Plaza Bill Hader
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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