Articles

July 22, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 7.24-26.2015

Weekend #30 of 2015 is looking like $170 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

Pixels from Sony should open with a $37.5 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are dreadful: 11% positive overall so far. Pixels is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $120 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $215 million.

Paper Towns from Fox should open with a $26.5 million three-day weekend. Solid critical reception: 75% positive reviews so far. Paper Towns is on track for around $82 million domestic, with significant upside. Overseas the film could bring in $52 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $134 million.

Southpaw from Weinstein Company should open with a $13.5 million three-day weekend. Very mediocre critical reception: 48% positive reviews so far. Southpaw is on track for around $41 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $18 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $59 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

July 24-26, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Pixels Sony PG13 11% 37.5 95
Paper Towns Fox PG13 75% 26.5 82
Southpaw Weins R 48% 13.5 41
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Ant-Man
, Minions and Trainwreck form a solid trio of holdovers providing support for the box office this weekend.

RETURNING FILMS

July 24-26, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Ant-Man Dis -54% 26.5 170
Minions Uni -51% 24.2 334
Trainwreck Uni -39% 18.4 115
Jurassic World Uni -35% 7.4 655
Inside Out Dis -37% 7.3 349
Terminator: Genisys Par -58% 2.3 98
Magic Mike XXL WB -52% 2.1 77

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $148 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 17th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $137 million (while 2013 was $158 million, 2012 was $126 million and 2011 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very respectable $170 million, up +15% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +24% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

7.25.2014

Lucy Uni R Scarlett Johansson Morgan Freeman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $44
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $125 Actual: $127
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $332

Hercules Par PG13 Dwayne Johnson Ian McShane
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $73
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $171

And So It Goes Clarius PG13 Michael Douglas Diane Keaton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10

7.26.2013

The Wolverine Fox PG13 Hugh Jackman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $72 Actual: $53
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $132
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $282

The Way, Way Back Fox PG13 Steve Carell Toni Collette
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2

Fruitvale Station Weins R Michael B Jordan Octavia Spencer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

The To Do List CBS R Aubrey Plaza Bill Hader
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $5 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.