Weekend #32 of 2015 is looking like $133 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat below the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).
Fantastic Four from Fox and Marvel should open with a $46.5 million three-day weekend. Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are unenthusiastic: 21% positive overall so far. Fantastic Four is on track for around $128 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $210 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $338 million.
This would be near the $331 million worldwide for Fantastic Four (released 7.8.2005 with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) and above the $289 million worldwide for Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (released 6.15.2007).
The Gift from STX Entertainment should open with a $9.2 million three-day weekend. Critics are very impressed: 94% positive reviews so far. The Gift is on track for around $31 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $51 million.
Ricki and the Flash from Sony should open with a $8.0 million three-day weekend. Critics are fairly positive: 70% positive reviews so far. Ricki and the Flash is on track for around $29 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $7 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $36 million.
Shaun the Sheep from Lionsgate should open with a $6.5 million three-day weekend. Critics are nearly unanimous: 99% positive reviews so far. Shaun the Sheep is on track for around $30 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $65 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $95 million.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 7-9, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Fantastic Four | Fox | PG13 | 21% | 46.5 | 128 | |
| The Gift | STX | PG13 | 94% | 9.2 | 31 | |
| Ricki and the Flash | Sony | PG | 70% | 8.0 | 29 | |
| Shaun the Sheep | LG | R | 99% | 6.5 | 30 | |
It’s up to Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation to provide support from the bench this weekend at the North American box office.
|
RETURNING FILMS August 7-9, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation | Par | -51% | 27.5 | 168 | |
| Vacation | WB | -49% | 7.5 | 52 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | -48% | 6.7 | 171 | |
| Minions | Uni | -46% | 6.7 | 330 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | -37% | 6.1 | 111 | |
| Pixels | Sony | -49% | 5.3 | 65 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $148 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 16th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $174 million (while 2013 was $142 million, 2012 was $133 million and 2011 was $143 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a somewhat soft $133 million, down -10% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -24% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
8.8.2014
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Par PG13 Megan Fox Will Arnett
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $37 Actual: $66
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $183 Actual: $191
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $294
Into the Storm WB PG13 Richard Armitage Sarah Wayne Callies
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $48
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $113
The Hundred-Foot Journey Dis PG Helen Mirren Charlotte LeBon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $45 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $35
Step Up All In LG/Sum PG13 Ryan Guzman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $71
8.9.2013
Elysium Sony R Matt Damon Jodie Foster
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $93
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $193
We’re the Millers WB R Jason Sudeikis Jennifer Aniston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $119 Actual: $150
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $120
Planes Dis PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $77 Actual: $90
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $130
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters Fox PG Logan Lerman Alexandra Daddario
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $62 Actual: $68
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $131
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
