Articles

September 23, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 9.25-27.2015

Weekend #39 of 2015 is looking like $137 million for the top 12 films this weekend, well above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

Hotel Transylvania 2 from Sony should open with a $37.5 million weekend. Reviews are non-existent: nothing yet at RottenTomatoes. The film is on track for around $123 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $250 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $373 million.

This would be up a bit from the $358 million worldwide for Hotel Transylvania (released 9.28.2012) and totaled $148 million domestic and $210 million overseas.

The Intern from Warner Brothers should open with an $18.0 million weekend.  Middling critical response: 58% positive in early reviews.  The film is on track for around $65 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $70 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $135 million.

Also, Sicario expands from a limited 6 theater run last weekend, and The Green Inferno will open this weekend, before exiting in a mere week or two.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

September 25-27, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Hotel Transylvania 2 Sony PG n/a 37.5 123
The Intern WB PG13 58% 18.0 65
Sicario LG R 90% 11.0 42
The Green Inferno High R 59% 2.8 6
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Everest expands from 500 large-format theaters last week to a full national release this week, something in between a returning film and a true opener.  Depending on how you define it, the film will either be the #2 opener this weekend or the top holdover.

RETURNING FILMS

September 25-27, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Everest Uni +204% 21.9 120
Maze Runner: Scorch Trials Fox -54% 14.0 85
Black Mass WB -41% 13.4 75
The Visit Uni -51% 5.7 67
The Perfect Guy Sony -50% 4.9 59
War Room Sony -24% 4.7 62
A Walk In the Woods BG -36% 1.8 31

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $98 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 43rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $98 million (while 2013 was $96 million, 2012 was $107 million and 2011 was $90 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a strong $137 million, up +41% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +40% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

9.26.2014

The Equalizer Sony R Denzel Washington Chloe Moretz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $112 Actual: $102
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $91

The Boxtrolls FOC PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $57

9.27.2013

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $41 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $120
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $155

Rush Uni R Chris Hemsworth Olivia Wilde
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $27
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $63

Don Jon Rel R Joseph Gordon-Levitt Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $30 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6

Baggage Claim Fox PG13 Paula Patton Derek Luke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.