Weekend Box Office Predictions APRIL 11-13

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Weekend #15 of 2014 is looking like a very good $149 million for the top 12 films, 41% above the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($112 million) and the second strong weekend in a row.

Opening at around 3,900 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Rio 2 from Fox should average $10,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $39.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mildly positive: 60% positive so far. Rio 2 is on track for around $140 million domestic, near the $143.6 million domestic gross for Rio (released by Fox on April 15, 2011).  The first Rio grossed $341.0 million overseas for a worldwide total of $484.6 million.  Rio 2 should gross $375 million overseas, which would give it an estimated $515 million worldwide. 

Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, Oculus from Relativity should average $5,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.5 million opening weekend).  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are extremely supportive, especially for a horror film: 89% positive so far. Oculus is on track for around $41 million domestic, holding up much better than the typical horror film.

Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday, Draft Day from Lionsgate/Summit should average $4,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $12.5 million opening weekend). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not available: the film is under wraps. Draft Day is on track for around $32 million domestic.