Articles

April 16, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions APRIL 18-20

Weekend #16 of 2014 is looking like a very solid $130 million for the top 12 films, 15% above the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($112 million).  Although not as strong as the previous few weekends, this is the third up weekend in a row.  None of the new films this weekend look like long-term players, but the multiple openings and the holdover business from Rio 2 and Captain America 2 should keep theaters busy.

Opening at over 3,400 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Transcendence from Warner Brothers should average $6,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $21.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not promising: only 21% positive so far. Transcendence is on track for around $51 million domestic.  We see more potential overseas, where the film could gross about $110 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $161 million. 

Opening at 2,417 theaters Wednesday, Heaven Is for Real from Sony should average $6,600 per theater for the traditional three-day weekend (for a $16.0 million opening weekend). With the Wednesday and Thursday pre-weekend business included, the film should total about $23 million through Sunday.  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre: 46% positive so far. Heaven Is for Real is on track for around $56 million domestic.  Limited overseas potential: maybe $9 million.  Worldwide box office target: $65 million.

Opening at 2,310 theaters Friday, A Haunted House 2 from Open Road Films should average $6,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.5 million opening weekend). No reviews at RottenTomatoes currently.  A Haunted House 2 is on track for around $36 million domestic.  Overseas forecast is $22 million, giving A Haunted House 2 a worldwide box office target of $58 million.  This is very similar to the $40.0 million domestic, $19.9 million overseas and $59.9 million worldwide for A Haunted House (also released by Open Road Films, on January 11, 2013).

Opening at around 1,600 theaters Friday, Bears from Disney should average $4,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.5 million opening weekend). No reviews at RottenTomatoes yet. Bears is headed for around $15 million domestic.  Bears might make another $15 million overseas, giving it a worldwide box office target of $30 million.  This would be very similar to the previous low in the DisneyNature Earth Day series ($30.8 million worldwide for African Cats, released April 22, 2011) and just below Chimpanzee, which grossed $34.8 million worldwide (released 4.20.2012).  The series started with a bang on April 22, 2009 with Earth ($108.9 million worldwide) and continued solidly with Oceans (released 4.22.2010) which grossed $82.6 million worldwide.  Since then the series has been a bit of an environmental vanity project.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

April 18-20, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Transcendence WB PG13 21% 21.0 51
Heaven Is for Real Sony PG 46% 16.0 56
A Haunted House 2 Open R R n/a 13.5 36
Bears Dis G n/a 6.5 15
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Among the holdovers, Rio 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier will fight for the top spot.

RETURNING FILMS

April 18-20, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Rio 2 Fox -41% 23.4 138
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis -44% 23.0 255
Draft Day LG/Sum -39% 6.0 33
Oculus Rel -52% 5.8 35
Divergent LG/Sum -38% 4.6 142
Noah Par -47% 4.0 103
God’s Not Dead Free -35% 3.6 53

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 34th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $100 million (while 2012 was $126 million, 2011 was $121 million and 2010 was $90 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like an above average $130 million, 15% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 29% above the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

4.19.2013

Oblivion Uni PG13 Tom Cruise Morgan Freeman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $35 Actual: $37
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $107 Actual: $89
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $197

4.20.2012

Think Like a Man SONY PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $102 Actual: $92
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4

The Lucky One WB PG13 Zac Efron Taylor Schilling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $60
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $32

Chimpanzee DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.