Weekend Box Office Predictions APRIL 18-20

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Weekend #16 of 2014 is looking like a very solid $130 million for the top 12 films, 15% above the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($112 million).  Although not as strong as the previous few weekends, this is the third up weekend in a row.  None of the new films this weekend look like long-term players, but the multiple openings and the holdover business from Rio 2 and Captain America 2 should keep theaters busy.

Opening at over 3,400 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Transcendence from Warner Brothers should average $6,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $21.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are not promising: only 21% positive so far. Transcendence is on track for around $51 million domestic.  We see more potential overseas, where the film could gross about $110 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $161 million. 

Opening at 2,417 theaters Wednesday, Heaven Is for Real from Sony should average $6,600 per theater for the traditional three-day weekend (for a $16.0 million opening weekend). With the Wednesday and Thursday pre-weekend business included, the film should total about $23 million through Sunday.  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre: 46% positive so far. Heaven Is for Real is on track for around $56 million domestic.  Limited overseas potential: maybe $9 million.  Worldwide box office target: $65 million.

Opening at 2,310 theaters Friday, A Haunted House 2 from Open Road Films should average $6,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.5 million opening weekend). No reviews at RottenTomatoes currently.  A Haunted House 2 is on track for around $36 million domestic.  Overseas forecast is $22 million, giving A Haunted House 2 a worldwide box office target of $58 million.  This is very similar to the $40.0 million domestic, $19.9 million overseas and $59.9 million worldwide for A Haunted House (also released by Open Road Films, on January 11, 2013).

Opening at around 1,600 theaters Friday, Bears from Disney should average $4,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.5 million opening weekend). No reviews at RottenTomatoes yet. Bears is headed for around $15 million domestic.  Bears might make another $15 million overseas, giving it a worldwide box office target of $30 million.  This would be very similar to the previous low in the DisneyNature Earth Day series ($30.8 million worldwide for African Cats, released April 22, 2011) and just below Chimpanzee, which grossed $34.8 million worldwide (released 4.20.2012).  The series started with a bang on April 22, 2009 with Earth ($108.9 million worldwide) and continued solidly with Oceans (released 4.22.2010) which grossed $82.6 million worldwide.  Since then the series has been a bit of an environmental vanity project.