Weekend #14 of 2014 is looking like a robust $159 million for the top 12 films, 41% above the typical volume for this weekend the past few years ($113 million).
Opening at around 3,900 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Captain America: The Winter Soldier from Disney should average $23,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $92.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are extremely supportive: 92% positive so far. Captain America: The Winter Soldier is on track for around $205 million domestic, slightly above the $176.7 million domestic gross for Captain America: The First Avenger (released by Paramount on July 22, 2011). The first Captain America grossed $193.9 million overseas for a worldwide total of $370.6 million. This second Captain America (Winter Soldier) should gross $230 million overseas, which would give it an estimated $435 million worldwide.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 4-6, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier | Dis | PG13 | 92% | 92.5 | 205 | |
Among the holdovers, Noah is tops, while Divergent is the only other film doing significant business this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS April 4-6, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Noah | Par | -56% | 19.4 | 131 | |
| Divergent | LG/Sum | -52% | 12.4 | 154 | |
| God’s Not Dead | Free | -22% | 6.9 | 47 | |
| Muppets Most Wanted | Dis | -43% | 6.5 | 64 | |
| Grand Budapest Hotel | FoxS | -29% | 6.1 | 58 | |
| Mr Peabody & Sherman | Fox/DWA | -38% | 5.6 | 119 | |
| Need for Speed | Dis | -46% | 2.3 | 45 | |
| Non-Stop | Uni | -45% | 2.2 | 96 | |
| Sabotage | Open Road | -60% | 2.0 | 10 | |
| Cesar Chavez | LG/Sum | -30% | 2.0 | 9 | |
| 300: Rise of an Empire | WB | -52% | 2.0 | 112 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $113 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $127 million (while 2012 was $117 million, 2011 was $103 million and 2010 was $119 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $159 million, 41% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 26% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
4.5.2013
Evil Dead Sony R Jane Levy Shiloh Fernandez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
Jurassic Park 3D Uni PG13 Sam Neill Laura Dern
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $57 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $71
4.6.2012
Titanic (3D) PAR PG13 Leonardo DiCaprio Kate Winslet
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $81 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $286
American Reunion UNI R Jason Biggs Seann William Scott
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $64 Actual: $57
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $178
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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