The box office is starting to stabilize after a rough first quarter of the year. This weekend’s top 12 films should total about $120 million, within 3% of the same weekend in recent years and the second weekend in a row to buck the strong downward trend most of the winter.
Opening at a slightly above average 3,000+ theaters Friday, Evil Dead from Sony should average a decent $8,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $26.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are strong, especially for a horror film (81% positive reviews so far). Evil Dead should be on course for $75 million domestic.
Opening at approximately 2,600 theaters Friday, Jurassic Park 3D from Universal should average an okay $6,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend). Positive reviews (89% positive) for the movie that was cutting edge back in 1994. Jurassic Park 3D is on track for about $45 million domestic (below the $57 million for Titanic 3D in April 2012).
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 5-7, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Evil Dead | Sony | R | 81% | 26.5 | 75 | |
| Jurassic Park 3D | Uni | PG13 | 89% | 17.5 | 45 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
A look at the holdovers this weekend.
|
RETURNING FILMS April 5-7, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| G.I. Joe: Retaliation | Par | -50% | 20.2 | 127 | |
| The Croods | Fox | -31% | 18.5 | 160 | |
| Tyler Perry’s Temptation | LG | -57% | 9.3 | 57 | |
| Olympus Has Fallen | FilmDis | -45% | 7.8 | 88 | |
| Oz the Great and Powerful | Dis | -41% | 6.9 | 236 | |
| The Host | OpenRoad | -53% | 5.0 | 19 | |
| The Call | Sony | -46% | 2.7 | 51 | |
| Admission | Foc/Uni | -44% | 1.8 | 18 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $116 million total, ranking 31st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $117 million (while 2011 was $103 million and 2010 was $119 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly normal $120 million, up 3% from both the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
4.6.2012
American Reunion UNI R Jason Biggs Seann William Scott
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $64 Actual: $57
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $178
Titanic (3D) PAR PG13 Leonardo DiCaprio Kate Winslet
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $81 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $286
4.8.2011
Hanna FOC PG13 Eric Bana Cate Blanchett
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $40
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
Arthur WB PG13 Russell Brand Helen Mirren
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
Soul Surfer TRIPG Dennis Quaid AnnaSophia Robb
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Your Highness UNI R Danny McBride James Franco
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $22
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
###
About the Author
