Weekend #33 of 2012 looks like an unusually robust third weekend of August. Four new films open, with The Expendables 2 an atypically strong entry for this late weekend. The top 12 films this weekend should total $143 million, up over 35% from the pace for the same weekend the last few years.
Opening at about 3,200 theaters, The Expendables 2 from Lionsgate should average $11,700 per theater (for a $37.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] This would be a slight improvement from the $34.8 million opening weekend for The Expendables two years ago (August 13-15, 2010). Reviews are currently mildly positive (62% positive at RottenTomatoes), giving the sequel enough legs to get to $111 million domestic, according to our preliminary estimate. The original Expendables grossed $103.1 million domestic and $171.4 million overseas.
Opening at around 3,100 theaters, ParaNorman from Focus/ Universal should average a soft $4,200 per theater (for a $13.2 million opening weekend). There’s no other way to say it: the film just looks weird based on the limited marketing, and it might struggle to even hit that opening. Critics like what they have seen, however (79% positive currently), suggesting the ability to stick around a bit in theaters and stretching to a $45 million domestic gross.
Opening at around 2,200 theaters, Sparkle from TriStar should average a respectable $5,900 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $13.0 million opening weekend). Whitney Houston’s tragic death will give this film more attention than it would otherwise receive its first weekend. However, Sparkle (not released to critics for review) will most likely have wobbly legs and exit theaters with a $29 million domestic gross.
Finally, opening today at 2,551 theaters, The Odd Life of Timothy Green from Disney should average $3,800 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a traditional opening weekend of just under $10 million and a five-day Wednesday-Sunday of $13.5 million). Another film with marketing that certainly leaves many consumers scratching their heads, Odd Life is not receiving critical support (only 43% positive so far). The film should struggle to get to $33 million domestic.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| August 17-19, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Expendables 2 |
LG | R | 62% | 37.5 | 111 | |
| ParaNorman | Focus | PG | 79% | 13.2 | 45 | |
| Sparkle | TriStar | PG13 | n/a | 13.0 | 29 | |
| Odd Life of Timothy Green | Disney | PG | 43% | 9.8 | 33 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Bourne Legacy will most likely be the #2 film, at a decent $18 million in its second weekend, but its weekend decline rate should be greater than 50% each weekend going forward. The Campaign should hold a little better each weekend, perhaps as low as 45% declines from this weekend on.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| August 17-19, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Bourne Legacy | Uni | -52% | 18.3 | 110 | |
| The Campaign | WB | -47% | 14.1 | 91 | |
| Dark Knight Rises | WB | -39% | 11.6 | 444 | |
| Hope Springs | Sony | -35% | 9.5 | 65 | |
| Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days | Fox | -41% | 4.7 | 50 | |
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | -33% | 4.3 | 162 | |
| Total Recall | Sony | -54% | 3.7 | 55 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged an anemic $104 million total, ranking 35th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $106 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $110 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like an unusually strong $143 million, up 35% from this weekend last year and up 37% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Normally, the third weekend in August is nothing but a dumping ground….
8.19.2011
Conan the Barbarian LG R Jason Momoa Stephen Lang
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Spy Kids: All the Time in the World WEINS PG Jessica Alba Antonio Banderas
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $37
Fright Night DW/DISR Anton Yelchin Colin Farrell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23
One Day FOC PG13 Anne Hathaway Jim Sturgess
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
8.20.2010
Vampires Suck FOX PG13 Ken Jeong
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $44
Piranha 3D WEINS R Richard Dreyfuss Elizabeth Shue
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $57
Nanny McPhee Returns UNI PG Emma Thompson Maggie Gyllenhaal
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $64
Lottery Ticket WB PG13 Bow Wow Brandon T Jackson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
The Switch MIR PG13 Jason Bateman Jennifer Aniston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $28
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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