Articles

July 31, 2013
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions AUGUST 2-4

More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , ,

The 31st weekend of the year is looking like $141 million for the top 12 films, not bad for the first weekend of August.

Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday (near the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), 2 Guns from Universal should average $12,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $34 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre to weak: 43% positive so far. 2 Guns should be on track for $95 million domestic.

Opening at 3,866 theaters today, The Smurfs 2 from Sony should average $7,200 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $27.5 million opening Friday-Sunday). Combined with an estimated $15 million today and Thursday, the sequel should total $43 million through Sunday. The film is scoring a very poor 15% positive score at RottenTomatoes. The Smurfs 2 should be on course for maybe $115 million domestic, well below the $142.6 million domestic total for The Smurfs (released July 29, 2011). But the original in 2011 reaped $421.1 million overseas, and the rest of the world could be fooled into forking over $475 million or more this time (more than making up for the domestic decline).

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

August 2-4, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
2 Guns Uni PG 43% 34.0 95
Smurfs 2 Sony R 15% 27.5 115
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Despite a rough 56% second-weekend drop, The Wolverine will be the top holdover.  But The Wolverine will fade out rapidly in weekends three and four.  

 

RETURNING FILMS

August 2-4, 2013

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Wolverine Fox -56% 23.5 125
The Conjuring WB -43% 12.8 140
Despicable Me 2 Uni -43% 9.4 363
Turbo Fox/DWA -46% 7.4 95
Grown Ups 2 Sony -48% 6.0 132
Red 2 LG/Summit -48% 4.9 57
The Heat Fox -37% 4.4 164
Pacific Rim WB -52% 3.7 107
Fruitvale Station Weinstein -30% 3.2 22

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $132 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $114 million (while 2011 was $158 million and 2010 was $123 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $141 million, up 7% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend up 23% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

8.3.2012

Total Recall SONY PG13 Colin Farrell Kate Beckinsale
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $140

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days FOX PG Zachary Gordon Devon Bostick
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28

8.5.2011

Rise of the Planet of the Apes FOX PG13 James Franco Freida Pinto
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $180 Actual: $177
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $305

The Change-Up UNI R Jason Bateman Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $38

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.