Weekend #34 of 2014 is looking like $111 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 30% from the norm for this weekend and the fourth up weekend in a row after six straight down weekends.
Opening at over 2,750 theaters Friday (just below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Frank Miller’s Sin City: A Dame to Kill For from Weinstein should average $6,700 per theater for the weekend (for an $18.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a fairly mediocre 57% positive so far. Sin City: A Dame to Kill For is on track for around $56 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $79 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $135 million. This would be slightly below the $158.8 million worldwide for Sin City (released 4.1.2005 with $74.1 million domestic total and $84.7 million overseas).
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, If I Stay from Warner Brothers should average $6,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.0 million opening weekend). Early critical sentiment is slightly positive, with 60% positive reviews so far. The film is on track for around $49 million domestic, with a potential for another $21 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $70 million.
Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, When the Game Stands Tall from Sony should average $3,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet for the football drama. The film is on track for around $24 million domestic, with a potential for another $1 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $25 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 22-24, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Sin City: A Dame to Kill For | Weins | R | 57% | 18.5 | 56 | |
| If I Stay | WB | PG13 | 60% | 16.0 | 49 | |
| When the Game Stands Tall | Sony | PG | n/a | 9.5 | 24 | |
Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles are still driving the business among holdovers, with Guardians flipping back to the top spot as it is not decaying as rapidly as the Turtles.
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RETURNING FILMS August 22-24, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | -38% | 15.3 | 295 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | -49% | 14.6 | 180 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | -43% | 10.1 | 67 | |
| The Expendables 3 | LG/Sum | -56% | 7.2 | 45 | |
| The Giver | Weins | -51% | 6.3 | 35 | |
| The Hundred-Foot Journey | Dis | -31% | 4.9 | 45 | |
| Into the Storm | WB | -51% | 3.8 | 46 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $86 million total, ranking 47th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $90 million (while 2012 was $83 million, 2011 was $75 million and 2010 was $95 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a surprisingly good $111 million, up 30% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 24% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.23.2013
Blue Jasmine Sony PG13 Cate Blanchett Sally Hawkins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $37 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $62
The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones Sony PG13 Lilly Collins Jonathan Rhys Meyers
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
The World’s End Uni R Simon Pegg Nick Frost
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
You’re Next LG/Sum R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
8.24.2012
2016: Obama’s America Picturehouse PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Premium Rush Sony PG13 Joseph Gordon-Levitt Michael Shannon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
Hit and Run Open Road R Dax Shepard Kristin Bell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
The Apparition WB PG13 Ashley Greene Sebastian Stan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $0 Actual: $5
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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