The 34th weekend of the year is looking like $99 million for the top 12 films, up a decent 10% from the average for this weekend.
Opening at 3,046 theaters Wednesday (a bit above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones from Sony should average $4,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $12.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] With the additional $4 million we are estimating the film will take in today and Thursday, Mortal Instruments should total about $16.5 through Sunday for its first five days. The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are pretty ghastly: 17% positive so far. Mortal Instruments should be on track for $29 million domestic.
Opening at about 1,400 theaters Friday, The World’s End from Universal/Focus should average $6,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). The film is scoring a terrific 94% positive score at RottenTomatoes. The World’s End should be on course for maybe $35 million domestic.
Opening at around 2,400 theaters Friday, You’re Next from Lionsgate/Summit should average $3,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.2 million opening weekend). The film is scoring a very good 91% positive score at RottenTomatoes so far. You’re Next should be on course for $30 million domestic.
Expanding to semi-wide national release Friday (around 1,200 theaters compared to 229 last week), Blue Jasmine from Sony and Woody Allen should average $4,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $5.6 million first wide weekend). By Sunday the film should up to about $15 million total, including the four previous weeks of limited release. The film is generally supported by critics: 89% positive at RottenTomatoes, but with top critics it’s a just okay actually for a Woody Allen movie: 86% positive. Blue Jasmine should be on course for $39 million domestic final.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 23-25, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Mortal Instruments | Sony | PG13 | 17% | 12.5 | 29 | |
| The World’s End | Uni/Foc | R | 94% | 9.5 | 35 | |
| You’re Next | LG/Sum | R | 91% | 9.2 | 30 | |
| Blue Jasmine | Sony | PG13 | 89% | 5.6 | 39 | |
The Butler is the top holdover and still #1, although that is a bit of a weak claim given the weak crop of openers.
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RETURNING FILMS August 23-25, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | -35% | 15.9 | 90 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | -32% | 12.3 | 118 | |
| Planes | Dis | -35% | 8.7 | 77 | |
| Elysium | Sony | -48% | 7.1 | 88 | |
| Kick-Ass 2 | Uni | -56% | 5.9 | 33 | |
| Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | Fox | -45% | 4.9 | 61 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $91 million total, ranking 45th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $83 million (while 2011 was $75 million and 2010 was $95 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a pretty normal $99 million, up 10% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up an even better 20% with the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.24.2012
Premium Rush SONY PG13 Joseph Gordon-Levitt Michael Shannon
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
Hit and Run OPENROAD R Dax Shepard Kristin Bell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
2016: Obama’s America PICTURE PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $33
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
The Apparition WB PG13 Ashley Greene Sebastian Stan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $0 Actual: $5
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
8.26.2011
Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark FILMDIS R Katie Holmes Guy Pearce
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $31 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
Colombiana SONY PG13 Zoe Saldana Michael Vartan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
Our Idiot Brother WEINS R Paul Rudd Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $32 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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