>Keep your helmets on: the studios are about to drop three more bombs in movie theaters this weekend. A horror movie, an action flick and an adult comedy are being released, and we expect each to gross not much more than $30 million in their entire domestic theatrical run. Opening weekends should range between $9-12 million. That will leave #1 open again for The Help. Much will be made in the press about The Help being #1 for two weeks after a #2 opening, but, really, the #1 ranking is more of a quirk of the calendar and the positively abysmal quality of the competing films. Weekend ranking is about the least important statistic available. Remember, Cowboys & Aliens opened at #1 — just ask anyone at Comcast/ Universal if they are happy with that film’s performance.
Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by FilmDistrict, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark should average a somewhat below par $4,750 per theater (for $11.5 million for Friday-Sunday). With a small number of reviews posted at RottenTomatoes so far, critical opinion is mixed (56% positive, although not bad for the horror genre). This film should be on track for around $30 million or less in North America when it leaves theaters.
At about 2,500 theaters, Colombiana from Sony/TriStar should average a crappy $3,900 (for $10 million this weekend). No reviews yet for this movie, which has not been made available for critics. This action film featuring Avatar’s Zoe Saldana is probably headed for around $30 million or slightly more domestically.
Opening at only 2,000 theaters from Weinstein, Our Idiot Brother should average $4,730 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9.5 million opening weekend). Early reviews have been fairly positive at RottenTomatoes (63% positive). This movie is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.
(millions)New Films Critics Opening Domestic
August 26-28 Positive Weekend Total*
Don’t Be Afraid Dark FilmDis R 56% $ 11.5 $ 30
Colombiana Sony PG13 n/a $ 10.0 $ 32
Our Idiot Brother Wein R 63% $ 9.5 $ 25
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The Help should remain #1 thanks to another terrifically low 24% decline and, as noted before, very weak opening competition. All of the other returning films should below $10 million each this weekend, causing total box office volume to be quite soft this weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
August 26-28 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
The Help DW/Dis -24% $15.5 $130
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox -44% $ 9 $180
Spy Kids: All Time Wein -43% $ 6.5 $ 30
The Smurfs Sony -33% $ 5 $145
Conan the Barbarian LG -56% $ 4.5 $ 25
Fright Night DW/Dis -50% $ 4.0 $ 25
Final Destination 5 WB -52% $ 3.5 $ 45
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $94 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $95 million, and the year before was $110 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like another down weekend at $86 million, down about 10% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
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