Weekend #35 of 2014 is looking like $95 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 11% from the norm for this weekend and on track to be the fifth up weekend in a row after six straight down weekends.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday (below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), As Above/So Below from Universal should average $4,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $10.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] No reviews yet. As Above/So Below is on track for around $21 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $15 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $36 million.
Opening at around 2,400 theaters Wednesday, The November Man from Relativity should average $3,500 per theater for the weekend (for an $8.5 million opening weekend). Through Sunday, the film should total about $12 million for the first five days. Early critical sentiment is weak, with 35% positive reviews so far. The film is on track for around $28 million domestic, with a potential for another $27 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $55 million.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 29-31, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| As Above/So Below | Uni | R | n/a | 10.5 | 21 | |
| The November Man | Rel | R | 35% | 8.5 | 28 | |
Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles remain the two holdovers doing significant business and in all probability #1 and #2 for the weekend overall.
|
RETURNING FILMS August 29-31, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | -4% | 16.5 | 298 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | -9% | 15.3 | 184 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | -20% | 8.7 | 70 | |
| If I Stay | WB | -47% | 8.4 | 45 | |
| When the Game Stands Tall | Sony | -24% | 6.4 | 20 | |
| The Hundred-Foot Journey | Dis | -3% | 5.2 | 47 | |
| The Giver | Weins | -28% | 4.6 | 37 | |
| The Expendables 3 | LG/Sum | -37% | 4.1 | 40 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $85 million total, ranking 48th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $93 million (while 2012 was $86 million, 2011 was $82 million and 2010 was $81 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a reasonably good $95 million, up 11% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 2% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.30.2013
Instructions Not Included LG/Sum PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $44
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $41
One Direction: This Is Us Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $29
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $40
Getaway WB PG13 Ethan Hawke Selena Gomez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $8 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Closed Circuit Uni PG13 Eric Bana Rebecca Hall
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
8.31.2012
The Possession LG PG13 Jeffrey Dean Morgan Kyra Sedgwick
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Lawless Weins R Shia LaBeouf Tom Hardy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure Yari G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $0
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $1 Actual: $1
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
