The 35th weekend of the year is looking like $83 million for the top 12 films, exactly in line with the Friday-Sunday portions of recent Labor Day weekends and among the three or four weakest weekends of the entire year. After all, this is the weekend that has spawned Oogieloves and Shark Night 3D among other gems the past few years.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday (a little bit under the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), One Direction: This Is Us from Sony should average $6,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are pretty good for a concert film: 64% positive so far. One Direction should be on track for $42 million domestic.
Opening at about 2,000 theaters Friday, Getaway from Warner Brothers should average $3,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.3 million opening weekend). The film is scoring a rock bottom 0% positive score at RottenTomatoes so far. Getaway should be on course for maybe $10 million domestic.
Opening at 862 theaters Wednesday, Closed Circuit from Universal should average $3,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $2.7 million opening weekend). The film is scoring a mediocre 41% positive score at RottenTomatoes so far. Closed Circuit should be on course for $8 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Aug 30-Sep 1, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| One Direction: This Is Us | Sony | PG13 | 64% | 16.5 | 42 | |
| Getaway | WB | R | 0% | 6.3 | 10 | |
| Closed Circuit | Uni | R | 41% | 2.7 | 8 | |
The Butler is the top holdover and probably the #2 film overall this weekend, behind One Direction.
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RETURNING FILMS Aug 30-Sep 1, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Lee Daniels’ The Butler | Weins | -16% | 13.8 | 99 | |
| We’re the Millers | WB | -18% | 10.6 | 128 | |
| Planes | Dis | -20% | 6.9 | 81 | |
| The World’s End | Uni/Foc | -41% | 5.2 | 33 | |
| The Mortal Instruments | Sony | -48% | 4.8 | 22 | |
| Elysium | Sony | -34% | 4.6 | 88 | |
| Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters | Fox | -19% | 4.3 | 62 | |
| You’re Next | LG/Sum | -50% | 3.5 | 21 | |
| Blue Jasmine | Sony | -20% | 3.2 | 33 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $82 million total, ranking 50th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $86 million (while 2011 was $82 million and 2010 was $81 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a pretty average $83 million, up 1% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down 3% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.31.2012
The Possession LG PG13 Jeffrey Dean Morgan Kyra Sedgwick
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $55 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Lawless WEINS R Shia LaBeouf Tom Hardy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure YARI G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $0
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $1 Actual: $1
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
9.2.2011
The Debt FOCUS R Sam Worthington Helen Mirren
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Apollo 18 WEINSTEIN PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
Shark Night 3D RELATIVITY PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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