The 50th weekend of the year is looking like $160 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a very good kick-off to the holiday movie season.
Opening at around 3,900 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug from Warner Brothers should average a very good $21,200 per theater for the weekend (for an $82.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are positive but not effusive at RottenTomatoes: 75% positive so far. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is on track for $280 million domestic, slightly below the $303.0 million domestic total for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (which opened December 14-16, 2012 with $84.6 million). The first Hobbit went on to gross $714 million overseas and $1.017 billion worldwide. We’ll give The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug an overseas target gross of $750 million and a target worldwide total of $1.030 billion.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND December 13-15, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | WB | PG13 | 75% | 82.5 | 280 | |
| Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas | LG/Sum | PG13 | n/a | 30.0 | 70 | |
Opening at around 2,100 theaters Friday, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas from Lionsgate/Summit should average a solid $14,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $30.0 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes, which is not surprising for a Tyler Perry film. A Madea Christmas is on track for maybe $70 million domestic, which would be in the middle of the grosses for Tyler Perry films featuring the character Madea (see complete track below). We’ll give A Madea Christmas an overseas target of $1 million and a worldwide target of $71 million.
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Tyler Perry Madea Films |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total | |||||
| Madea’s Witness Protection | 6.29.2012 | PG13 | 21% | 25.4 | 65.6 | 66.9 | |
| Madea’s Big Happy Family | 4.22.2011 | PG13 | 38% | 25.1 | 53.3 | 54.2 | |
| Madea Goes to Jail | 2.20.2009 | PG13 | 30% | 41.0 | 90.5 | 90.5 | |
| Madea’s Family Reunion | 2.24.2006 | PG13 | 25% | 30.0 | 63.3 | 63.3 | |
Among the holdovers, Frozen is headed for about $20 million this weekend, while Hunger Games: Catching Fire is probably looking at its last weekend over $10 million. But what a run.
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RETURNING FILMS December 13-15, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -37% | 20.0 | 215 | |
| The Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | -52% | 12.5 | 415 | |
| Out of the Furnace | Rel | -52% | 2.5 | 16 | |
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | -49% | 2.5 | 205 | |
| Delivery Man | Dis | -44% | 2.1 | 33 | |
| Homefront | ORF | -49% | 1.8 | 22 | |
| The Book Thief | Fox | -35% | 1.7 | 18 | |
| Philomena | Weins | -29% | 1.6 | 17 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $124 million total, ranking 47th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $130 million (while 2011 was $110 million and 2010 was $128 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $160 million, up 29% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 23% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
12.14.2012
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB PG13 Martin Freeman Ian McKellen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $110 Actual: $85
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $239 Actual: $303
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $714
12.16.2011
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows WB PG13 Robert Downey Jr Jude Law
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $62 Actual: $40
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $133 Actual: $187
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $357
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked FOX G Jason Lee David Cross
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $35 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $133
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $210
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol PAR PG13 Tom Cruise Jeremy Renner
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $160 Actual: $209
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $484
Young Adult PAR R Charlize Theron Patton Oswalt
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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