Another lifeless weekend is in store this weekend, as the audience prepares for the holidays and puts of moviegoing until the week between Christmas and New Year’s, when there are seven weekend-volume days in a row. Until then, we have a weekend which will add up to less than $80 million for the top dozen films.
Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday, Playing for Keeps from FilmDistrict should average a rough $2,400 per theater (for a $6.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are hostile so far (the film is rocking a 0% positive rating at RottenTomatoes — with fewer than 10 reviews at this point). We are projecting the romantic comedy will gross $12 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND November 30-December 2, 2012 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Playing for Keeps | FilmDis | PG13 | 0% | 6.5 | 12 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Even the recently reliable holdovers are losing steam — kind of sad when only three films have a shot at clearing $10 million for the weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS December 7-9, 2012 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Skyfall | Sony | -39% | 10.2 | 285 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | -27% | 9.8 | 135 | |
| Rise of the Guardians | Par/DW | -27% | 9.8 | 85 | |
| Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 | Sum | -47% | 9.2 | 280 | |
| Life of Pi | Fox | -35% | 7.9 | 82 | |
| Wreck-It Ralph | Dis | -34% | 4.6 | 177 | |
| Red Dawn | FilmD | -48% | 3.4 | 43 | |
| Killing Them Softly | Weins | -55% | 3.1 | 27 | |
| Flight | Par | -35% | 2.9 | 93 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $80 million total, ranking 49th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $68 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $84 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly typical $73 million, down 10% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 7% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
12.9.11
New Year’s Eve WB PG13 Halle Berry Zac Efron
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $88
The Sitter FOX R Jonah Hill Ari Graynor
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
12.10.10
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader FOX PG Ben Barnes
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $72 Actual: $104
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $310
The Tourist SONY PG13 Johnny Depp Angelina Jolie
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $48 Actual: $68
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $211
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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