The 8th weekend of 2013 looks like another down weekend: $95 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 16% from the same weekend last year. Two more movies will open this weekend, both with little potential.
Opening in about 2,500 theaters Friday, Snitch from Summit and starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson should average a perfectly average $5,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.7 million traditional Friday-Sunday opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] There are only a handful of early reviews at RottenTomatoes, so it is tough to summarize critical sentiment. Snitch should be on course for $45 million domestic.
Opening in approximately 2,400 theaters Friday, Dark Skies from Weinstein should average a soft $4,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $10.8 million opening weekend). No early reviews at RottenTomatoes at this time. Dark Skies should be on course for $21 million domestic.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 22-24, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Snitch | Summit | PG13 | n/a | 13.7 | 45 | |
| Dark Skies | Weins | PG13 | n/a | 10.8 | 21 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Identity Thief has a good shot at denying Snitch the #1 spot this weekend.
|
RETURNING FILMS February 22-24, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Identity Thief | Uni | -44% | 13.3 | 135 | |
| A Good Day to Die Hard | Fox | -52% | 12.0 | 77 | |
| Safe Haven | Rel | -50% | 10.6 | 67 | |
| Escape from Planet Earth | Weins | -33% | 10.6 | 67 | |
| Warm Bodies | Summit | -41% | 5.3 | 73 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | -17% | 5.2 | 115 | |
| Beautiful Creatures | WB | -49% | 3.9 | 20 | |
| Side Effects | OpenRoad | -44% | 3.5 | 38 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $95 million total, ranking 40th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $114 million (while 2011 was $96 million and 2010 was $107 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $95 million, down 6% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 16% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
2.24.2012
Act of Valor REL R Roselyn Sanchez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $70
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $10
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds LG PG13 Tyler Perry Thandie Newton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Wanderlust UNI R Paul Rudd Jennifer Aniston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $17
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Gone SUMMIT PG13 Amanda Seyfried Jennifer Carpenter
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $12 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
2.25.2011
Hall Pass WB R Owen Wilson Jason Sudeikis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $48 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $38
Drive Angry 3D SUMMIT R Nicolas Cage
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
###
About the Author
