The second weekend of 2013 should total about $122 million for the top 12 films, a little better than the same weekend the last few years but below the comparable weekend in 2009 and 2010. Zero Dark Thirty moves from the art houses to a fairly wide release and should play more commercially than The Hurt Locker, a similar movie with identical creative auspices. Two other films open wide this weekend and should finish just behind the chart-topping pace of Zero Dark Thirty.
Expanding Friday to about 2,400 theaters (from 60 currently), Zero Dark Thirty from Sony should average $10,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $24.2 million wide-opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics fell for this film (94% positive positive reviews at RottenTomatoes) just as they did for The Hurt Locker (97% positive in 2008 for the same pairing of director Kathryn Bigelow and writer Mark Boal). Zero Dark Thirty will play well as it gathers awards momentum and will approach $90 million domestic.
Opening Friday at about 3,000 theaters, Gangster Squad from Warner Brothers should average $5,800 per theater (for a $17.2 million opening weekend). Critics are lukewarm (currently 50% positive rating). Gangster Squad should end up with $50 million domestic.
Opening Friday at 2,160 theaters, A Haunted House from Open Road Films should average a good $7,100 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $15.2 million opening weekend). No word from critics, who are not allowed to preview the latest Wayans horror parody (this one written by and starring Marlon Wayans). A Haunted House should struggle to get to $45 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 11-13, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Zero Dark Thirty | Sony | R | 94% | 24.2 | 90 | |
| Gangster Squad | WB | R | 50% | 17.2 | 50 | |
| A Haunted House | OpenRoad | R | n/a | 15.2 | 45 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Django and Les Miz remain the class of the holdovers, but they should trail the trio of openers this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS January 11-13, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Django Unchained | Weins | -31% | 13.8 | 180 | |
| Les Miserables | Uni | -36% | 10.3 | 160 | |
| The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | WB | -44% | 9.8 | 295 | |
| Texas Chainsaw 3D | LG | -64% | 7.8 | 45 | |
| Parental Guidance | Fox | -40% | 5.9 | 85 | |
| Jack Reacher | Par | -47% | 4.9 | 90 | |
| This Is 40 | Uni | -46% | 4.6 | 80 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | -39% | 4.5 | 160 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | +11% | 4.0 | 70 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $138 million total, ranking 21st of 52 weeks. Last year and in 2011, this weekend’s total was $115 million (while 2009 and 2010 were a heftier $165 million and $157 million, respectively). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a just okay $122 million, down 12% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 6% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
1.13.2012
Contraband UNI R Mark Wahlberg Kate Beckinsale
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $30
Beauty and the Beast 3D DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $47
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Joyful Noise WB PG13 Queen Latifah Dolly Parton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Iron Lady WEINS PG13 Meryl Streep Jim Broadbent
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $85
1.14.2011
Green Hornet SONY PG13 Seth Rogen Cameron Diaz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $38 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $106 Actual: $99
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $129
The Dilemma UNI PG13 Vince Vaughn Kevin James
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $48
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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