Weekend #3 of 2014 is looking like $130 million for the top 12 films for the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the long MLK weekend, up 14% from the average for this weekend the past few years.
Opening at around 2,200 theaters Friday (below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Ride Along from Universal should average about $12,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $26.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are hostile: 9% positive so far. Ride Along is on track for $80 million domestic.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit from Paramount should average about $6,100 per theater for the weekend (for an $18.5 million opening three-day weekend). Fairly positive critical support: 67% positive at RottenTomatoes. Jack Ryan is headed for $57 million domestic.
Opening at 3,427 theaters Friday, The Nut Job from Open Road Films should average a low $3,400 per theater for the weekend (for an $11.5 million opening three-day weekend). Limited love from critics so far: 27% positive in early reviews. The Nut Job is on track for $31 million domestic.
Devil’s Due from Fox should average a bad $2,700 per theater this weekend (for a $7.5 million opening three-day weekend). No reviews yet for this horror film. Devil’s Due is on track for about $12 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 17-19, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Ride Along | Uni | PG13 | 9% | 26.5 | 80 | |
| Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit | Par | PG13 | 67% | 18.5 | 57 | |
| The Nut Job | Open Road | PG | 27% | 11.5 | 31 | |
| Devil’s Due | Fox | R | n/a | 7.5 | 12 | |
Lone Survivor will be the top holdover this weekend, allowing Universal to claim the top two spots at the weekend box office in all probability.
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RETURNING FILMS January 17-19, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Lone Survivor | Uni | -42% | 21.8 | 114 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -23% | 11.3 | 370 | |
| August: Osage County | Weins | +1% | 7.3 | 35 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | -21% | 6.5 | 131 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | -29% | 6.3 | 107 | |
| Saving Mr. Banks | Dis | -29% | 4.7 | 91 | |
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | WB | -43% | 4.6 | 270 | |
| Legend of Hercules | LG/Sum | -57% | 3.8 | 19 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $114 million total, ranking 33rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $117 million (while 2012 was $110 million, 2011 was $89 million and 2010 was $128 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $130 million, up 14% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 11% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
1.18.2013
Mama Uni PG13 Jessica Chastain Nikolaj Coster-Waldau
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $72
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75
The Last Stand LG/Sum R Arnold Schwarzenegger Johnny Knoxville
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $25
Broken City Fox R Mark Wahlberg Russell Crowe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
1.20.2012
Underworld Awakening SONY R Kate Beckinsale Michael Ealy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $72 Actual: $62
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $98
Red Tails FOX PG13 Cuba Gooding Jr Terrence Howard
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $56 Actual: $50
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close WB PG13 Tom Hanks Thomas Horn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
Haywire REL R Channing Tatum Michael Fassbender
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $29 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $12
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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