The first weekend of the new year is looking like $125 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, slightly above average for this weekend versus previous years.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones from Paramount should average about $7,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes, as the fifth installment of the Paranormal Activity franchise is being hidden from critics. The Marked Ones is on track for $40 million domestic, even lower than the previous low for the franchise ($53.9 million domestic for Paranormal Activity 4 which opened October 19-21, 2012 to $29.0 million). The other domestic totals for the more successful first three in the franchise: PA $107.9 million in September 2009, PA 2 $84.7 million in October 2010 and PA 3 $104.0 million in October 2011.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 3-5, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones | Par | R | n/a | 17.5 | 40 | |
Among the holdovers, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug and Frozen remain at the top (at or near $20 million for the weekend). Meanwhile, Anchorman 2, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street remain above the significant $10 million weekend level.
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RETURNING FILMS January 3-5, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Frozen 3D | Dis | -30% | 20.2 | 310 | |
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug | WB | -44% | 16.7 | 250 | |
| Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues | Par | -42% | 11.8 | 152 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | -40% | 11.8 | 128 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | -41% | 11.0 | 115 | |
| Saving Mr. Banks | Dis | -33% | 9.4 | 88 | |
| Secret Life of Walter Mitty | Fox | -37% | 8.2 | 73 | |
| Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | -37% | 6.5 | 420 | |
| 47 Ronin | Uni | -48% | 5.2 | 48 | |
| Walking with Dinosaurs | Fox | -32% | 4.8 | 45 | |
| Grudge Match | WB | -38% | 4.5 | 44 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $125 million total, ranking 27th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $124 million (while 2012 was $126 million and 2011 was $99 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $127 million, up 2% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 3% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
1.4.2013
The Impossible LG/Sum PG13 Naomi Watts Ewan McGregor
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $161
Texas Chainsaw 3D LG/Sum R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Promised Land FOC R Matt Damon John Krasinski
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
1.6.2012
The Devil Inside PAR R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $53
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $48
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy UNI R Gary Oldman Colin Firth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $24
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $56
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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