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This weekend will be dominated not surprisingly by the third Transformers film, while two romantic comedies will try to get off the ground. Overall, the weekend is looking like it will be up over last year.
Opening at 4,011 theaters, Transformers: Dark of the Moon should average a strong $20,800 per theater (for $83.5 million for the traditional Friday-Sunday weekend). The third Transformers has already grossed $5.5 million in Tuesday previews and $13.5 million in Wednesday midnight showings. The film should do $75 million Wednesday through Thursday, the $83+ million Friday-Sunday, and about $18 million on Monday, July 4. Add all that up and it should reach $195 million through Monday. Critical reception so far has been soft for the Transformers sequel, 39% positive at RottenTomatoes, although this film should be fairly critic-proof because of the spectacle. Be sure to check out Mitch Salem’s review of the film.
At about 2,750 theaters, Tom Hanks’ Larry Crowne should average a mediocre $5,200 (for $14.5 million the traditional Friday-Sunday weekend). Critical reaction to the R-rated comedy has been mixed (47% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes). The film should gross about $19 million Friday-Monday.
In the afterthought department, Monte Carlo with Selena Gomez should average a way below par $2,500 per theater at about 2,400 theaters. The film, which has not been released for reviews, should total $6 million Friday-Sunday and $8 million Friday-Monday.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
July 1-3 Positive Weekend Total*
Transformers Dark Par/DW PG13 39% $83.5 $360
Larry Crowne Uni PG13 47% $14.5 $ 55
Monte Carlo Fox PG n/a $ 6.0 $ 14
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
For comparison, Transformers opened July 3, 2007 and went on the gross $319 million, while Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was released June 24, 2009 and grossed $402 million. The initial ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Estimate for Dark of the Moon is $360 million, somewhere in between the first two films in the series.
Cars 2 and Bad Teacher should take moderate hits in their second weekend (when looking at our standard Friday-Sunday comparison period).
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
July 1-3 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Cars 2 Dis -45% $37 $178
Bad Teacher Sony -49% $16 $101
Green Lantern WB -55% $ 8 $125
Super 8 Par -44% $ 6.5 $135
Mr Popper’s Penguins Fox -35% $ 6.5 $ 65
Mr Popper’s Penguins Fox -35% $ 6.5 $ 65
X-Men: First Class Fox -47% $ 3.5 $153
Hangover Part II WB -42% $ 3 $259
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $164 million total, ranking 6th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $181 million, and the year before was $156 million. This weekend is looking like a solid up weekend at $190 million.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.1.10
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse SUMMIT PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $92 Actual: $65
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $334 Actual: $300
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $393
The Last Airbender PAR PG Cliff Curtis Dev Patel
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $40
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $142 Actual: $132
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $187
7.3.09
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs FOX PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $52 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $199 Actual: $197
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $688
Public Enemies UNI R Johnny Depp
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $105 Actual: $97
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $117
Come back throughout the long weekend to see how the movies actually perform. The next few days we will take a look at Transformers first few days, and Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Tuesday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend, including the July 4 holiday.
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