Weekend #28 of 2014 is looking like $135 million for the top 12 films this weekend, -30% below the norm for this weekend. Another really weak weekend in what is turning out to be a troubling summer at the box office.
Opening at over 3,800 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from 20th Century Fox should average a strong $18,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $69.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are effusive: 98% positive in early reviews. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is on track for around $200 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $395 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $595 million. This compares favorably to Rise of the Planet of the Apes (released August 5, 2011 with 82% positive reviews) which grossed $176.8 million domestic, $305.0 million overseas and $481.8 million worldwide.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 11-13, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | Fox | PG13 | 97% | 69.0 | 200 | |
It’s getting to be pretty slim pickings among the holdovers. Transformers: Age of Extinction and Tammy are the only films heading for more than $10 million this weekend. The bench is getting thin.
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RETURNING FILMS July 11-13, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | -53% | 17.5 | 253 | |
| Tammy | WB | -50% | 10.8 | 69 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | -39% | 6.0 | 191 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | -33% | 6.0 | 170 | |
| Earth to Echo | Rel | -37% | 5.3 | 25 | |
| Deliver Us from Evil | Sony | -49% | 5.0 | 28 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | -33% | 4.2 | 239 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | -42% | 3.0 | 50 | |
| Begin Again | Weins | +131% | 2.9 | n/a | |
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | -45% | 2.7 | 65 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $192 million total, ranking 4th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was a decent $188 million (while 2012 was $154 million, 2011 was $252 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a horrible $135 million, down -30% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -28% from the same weekend last year. A $135 million weekend looks more like a typical March weekend, not a July weekend in the heart of the important summer season.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.12.2013
Pacific Rim WB PG13 Charlie Hunnam Idris Elba
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $37
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $102
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $309
Grown Ups 2 Sony PG13 Adam Sandler Kevin James
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $125 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $113
7.13.2012
Ice Age: Continental Drift FOX PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $47 Actual: $47
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $140 Actual: $161
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $714
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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