July 9, 2014

Weekend Box Office Predictions JULY 11-13

Weekend #28 of 2014 is looking like $135 million for the top 12 films this weekend, -30% below the norm for this weekend.  Another really weak weekend in what is turning out to be a troubling summer at the box office.  

Opening at over 3,800 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from 20th Century Fox should average a strong $18,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $69.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.]  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are effusive: 98% positive in early reviews.  Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is on track for around $200 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $395 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $595 million.  This compares favorably to Rise of the Planet of the Apes (released August 5, 2011 with 82% positive reviews) which grossed $176.8 million domestic, $305.0 million overseas and $481.8 million worldwide.



July 11-13, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox PG13 97% 69.0 200
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


It’s getting to be pretty slim pickings among the holdovers. Transformers: Age of Extinction and Tammy are the only films heading for more than $10 million this weekend.  The bench is getting thin.


July 11-13, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Transformers: Age of Extinction Par -53% 17.5 253
Tammy WB -50% 10.8 69
22 Jump Street Sony -39% 6.0 191
How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox -33% 6.0 170
Earth to Echo Rel -37% 5.3 25
Deliver Us from Evil Sony -49% 5.0 28
Maleficent Dis -33% 4.2 239
Jersey Boys WB -42% 3.0 50
Begin Again Weins +131% 2.9 n/a
Think Like a Man Too Sony -45% 2.7 65


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $192 million total, ranking 4th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was a decent $188 million (while 2012 was $154 million, 2011 was $252 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a horrible $135 million, down -30% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -28% from the same weekend last year.  A $135 million weekend looks more like a typical March weekend, not a July weekend in the heart of the important summer season.


This Weekend Last Two Years


Pacific Rim WB PG13 Charlie Hunnam Idris Elba
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $37
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $102
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $309

Grown Ups 2 Sony PG13 Adam Sandler Kevin James
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $125 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $113


Ice Age: Continental Drift FOX PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $47 Actual: $47
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $140 Actual: $161
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $714


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.