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Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 from Warner Brothers will open huge at the box office, propelling the weekend up more than 30% over this weekend last year (when Inception and the Nicolas Cage classic The Sorcerer’s Apprentice opened). Winne the Pooh from Disney will get lost in the shuffle.
Opening at more than 4,200 theaters, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 should average a stunning $34,500 per theater (for $145 million for Friday-Sunday). Although the last three Potter films have steadily declined (as measured by estimated number of domestic tickets sold), we expect the fans of the series to come out in force for this finale. Fans who might have drifted away or got in the habit of waiting for the DVD should be back in theaters for this nostalgic event. Critical reception so far has been universally positive for this series finale, 96% positive at RottenTomatoes. And international business will be robust: the only question is when not if this installment reaches $1 billion worldwide. Read Mitch Salem’s review of Harry Potter.
At about 2,300 theaters,
Winnie the Pooh should average a weak $3,900 (for $9 million this weekend). The G-rated animated film has received widely positive reviews, 82% positive at RottenTomatoes.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
July 15-17 Positive Weekend Total*
Harry Potter Deathly 2 WB PG13 96% $145 $355
Winnie the Pooh Dis G 82% $ 9 $ 35
HARRY POTTER TRACK Open Domes Est Dom Worldwide
(millions) Release Wknd Total Tickets Total
Sorcerer’s Stone Nov 2001 $90 $318 55.9 $975
Chamber of Secrets Nov 2002 $88 $262 44.9 $879
Prisoner of Azkaban Jun 2004 $94 $250 40.2 $796
Goblet of Fire Nov 2005 $103 $290 45.2 $896
Order of the Phoenix Jul 2007 $77 $292 42.4 $938
Half-Blood Prince Jul 2009 $78 $302 40.5 $934
Deathly Hallows Part 1 Nov 2010 $125 $295 36.8 $955
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Transformers: Dark of the Moon will fall to the #2 position in its third weekend, down 52% from last Friday-Sunday.
Horrible Bosses should be in third place, dropping a decent 40% in weekend two. Zookeeper should fall a more average 46%
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
July 15-17 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Transformers 3 Par/DW -52% $22.5 $385
Horrible Bosses WB -40% $17 $ 97
Zookeeper Sony -46% $11 $ 63
Cars 2 Dis -47% $ 8 $190
Bad Teacher Sony -44% $ 5 $104
Larry Crowne Uni -44% $ 3.5 $ 39
Super 8 Par -41% $ 3 $137
Monte Carlo Fox -49% $ 2 $ 24
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $181 million total, ranking 3rd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $171 million, and the year before was $152 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a big up weekend at $229 million, up more than 30% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.16.10
Inception WB PG13 Leonardo DiCaprio Ken Watanabe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $71 Actual: $63
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $267 Actual: $292
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $533
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice DIS PG Nicolas Cage Alfred Molina
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $63
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $152
7.17.09
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince WB PG Daniel Radcliffe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $93 Actual: $78
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $303 Actual: $302
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $632
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.
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