Weekend #29 of 2014 is looking like $147 million for the top 12 films this weekend, -21% below the norm and the fifth weekend in a row down significantly from previous years.
Opening at 3,303 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Purge: Anarchy from Universal should average $8,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $29.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are nowhere to be found as Universal must not be especially proud of this sequel. The Purge is on track for around $75 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $40 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $115 million. This compares favorably to The Purge (released June 7, 2013 with 38% positive reviews) which grossed $64.5 million domestic, $24.8 million overseas and $89.3 million worldwide. With a still relatively small budget, The Purge: Anarchy will bring tidy profits to the studio.
Opening at over 3,600 theaters Friday, Planes: Fire & Rescue from Disney should average $6,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $25.0 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is unkind: only 25% positive so far. Planes: Fire & Rescue is on track for around $85 million domestic, with a potential for around another $130 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $215 million. This would be very similar to Planes (released August 9, 2013 with 26% positive reviews) which grossed $90.3 million domestic, $129.5 million overseas and $219.8 million worldwide.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday, Sex Tape from Sony should average $7,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $23.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is not supportive: only 29% positive so far. Sex Tape is on track for around $75 million domestic, with a potential for around another $95 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $170 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 18-20, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Purge: Anarchy | Uni | R | n/a | 29.5 | 75 | |
| Planes: Fire & Rescue | Dis | PG | 25% | 25.0 | 85 | |
| Sex Tape | Sony | R | 29% | 23.5 | 75 | |
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is the lone holdover doing significant business, and it should have enough power to stay #1 overall this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS July 18-20, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | Fox | -52% | 34.9 | 210 | |
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | -54% | 7.5 | 249 | |
| Tammy | WB | -43% | 7.1 | 88 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | -38% | 4.1 | 194 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | -37% | 3.9 | 174 | |
| Earth to Echo | Rel | -39% | 3.4 | 39 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | -55% | 2.8 | 239 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $185 million total, ranking 7th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $181 million (while 2012 was $224 million, 2011 was $181 million and 2010 was $155 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $147 million, down -21% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -19% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.19.2013
The Conjuring WB R Patrick Wilson Vera Farmiga
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $42
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $147 Actual: $137
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $181
Turbo Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $96 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $200
Red 2 LG/Sum PG13 Bruce Willis John Malkovich
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $58 Actual: $53
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $95
R.I.P.D. Uni PG13 Jeff Bridges Ryan Reynolds
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $45
7.20.2012
The Dark Knight Rises WB PG13 Christian Bale Michael Caine
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $190 Actual: $161
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $441 Actual: $448
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $633
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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