The 30th weekend of the year is looking like $174 million for the top 12 films, a bit lower than last weekend ($181 million) but much better than the average for this weekend the past few years ($137 million) when summer normally really starts to sputter (The Watch and Cowboys & Aliens were released this weekend the last few years).
Opening at around 3,700 theaters late Thursday night (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends, at about the top 10% of opening screen counts), The Wolverine from 20th Century Fox should average $18,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $69.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews at RottenTomatoes are decent: 74% positive so far, but there just doesn’t seem to be much excitement for or anticipation of this film in the marketplace. The Wolverine should be on track for $169 million domestic, a shade below the $179.9 million domestic gross for X-Men Origins: Wolverine (released May 1, 2009).
Expanding to about 650 theaters Friday, The Way, Way Back from Fox Searchlight should average $5,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $3.7 million quasi-opening weekend). Combined with a little over $5 million since its very limited release July 5, the film should clear $9 million through Sunday. The film is averaging a very good 83% positive score at RottenTomatoes so far. The Way, Way Back should be on course for maybe $26 million domestic.
Opening at around 500 theaters Friday, The To Do List from CBS Films should average $6,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $3.4 million opening weekend). Just a handful of reviews are posted on RottenTomatoes so far, but the early trend is positive with 73% positive. The To Do List should be on course for around $10 million domestic, suffering from very weak distribution.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 26-28, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Wolverine | Fox | PG13 | 74% | 69.5 | 169 | |
| The Way, Way Back | Fox | PG13 | 83% | 3.7 | 26 | |
| The To Do List | CBS | R | 70% | 3.4 | 10 | |
The Conjuring will be the top holdover, with a 44% second-weekend drop (normally only a little better than average but amazing for a horror film). Expanding to a few hundred screens, the drama Fruitvale Station (with echoes of the Trayvon Martin case) should crack the top 10, some the luckiest/smartest movie scheduling in recent memory.
|
RETURNING FILMS July 26-28, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Conjuring | WB | -44% | 23.5 | 130 | |
| Despicable Me 2 | Uni | -36% | 15.9 | 355 | |
| Turbo | Fox/DWA | -39% | 13.0 | 95 | |
| Grown Ups 2 | Sony | -43% | 11.4 | 124 | |
| Red 2 | LG/Summit | -50% | 9.1 | 62 | |
| Pacific Rim | WB | -50% | 8.1 | 105 | |
| The Heat | Fox | -31% | 6.5 | 161 | |
| Fruitvale Station | Weinstein | +630% | 5.4 | n/a | |
| R.I.P.D. | Uni | -60% | 5.1 | 26 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $137 million total, ranking 22nd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $126 million (while 2011 was $171 million and 2010 was $155 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $174 million, up 27% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend up 38% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7.27.2012
The Watch FOX R Ben Stiller Vince Vaughn
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $33
Step Up Revolution SUMMIT PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $105
7.29.2011
The Smurfs SONY PG Neil Patrick Harris Jayma Mays
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $129 Actual: $143
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $421
Cowboys & Aliens UNI PG13 Daniel Craig Harrison Ford
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $106 Actual: $100
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75
Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB PG13 Steve Carell Ryan Gosling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
