Weekend #30 of 2012 looks like $143 million for the top 12 films, the same as last year’s comparable weekend but down 16% from the four-year average for the weekend. Two new movies will try to take on The Dark Knight Rises without any chance of success.
Opening at about 3,000 theaters, The Watch from 20th Century Fox should average $7,600 per theater (for a $22.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] No reviews yet since Fox has hidden it from critics. Seriously, this thing has screamed turkey since the first trailers and TV spots. Is it alien invasion? Is it loser-buddy comedy? Pick a commercial and you get a totally different feel. But all the spots and trailers share one attribute: they loudly announce the film is laugh-free. We have the domestic gross for The Watch at a preliminary $71 million.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters, Step Up Revolution from Summit should average a $5,100 per theater (for a $12.5 million opening weekend). America has not exactly been clamoring for the fourth film in the Step Up series as the opening weekend and domestic gross has consistently declined for each of the first three films. (Step Up in August 2006 opened with $20.7 million and finished with $65.3 million; Step Up 2 the Streets opened in February 2008 with $18.9 million and grossed $58.0 million; and Step Up 3-D in August 2010 opened with $15.8 million and ended with $42.4 million.) We have Step Up Revolution grossing $33 million domestic.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| July 27-29, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| The Watch |
Fox | R | n/a | 22.5 | 71 | |
| Step Up Revolution | Summit | PG13 | n/a | 12.5 | 33 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Dark Knight Rises will be #1 again this weekend by a mile, but we have it declining 57% from its opening weekend. This would be a somewhat larger drop than The Dark Knight experienced in its second weekend in 2008 (-52% to $75.2 million). The other films have fairly normal declines ahead, although Ice Age 4 is the only other returning film with any significant business left.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| July 27-29, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Dark Knight Rises | WB | -57% | 69.0 | 495 | |
| Ice Age: Continental Drift | Fox | -41% | 12.1 | 137 | |
| Amazing Spider-Man | Sony | -41% | 6.4 | 286 | |
| Ted | Uni | -38% | 6.3 | 221 | |
| Brave | Dis | -35% | 3.9 | 232 | |
| Magic Mike | WB | -44% | 2.4 | 117 | |
| Savages | Uni | -40% | 2.1 | 53 | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | -42% | 1.3 | 46 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $141 million total, ranking 18th of 52 weeks. Last year (July 29-31) this weekend’s total was $171 million (while July 30-August 1, 2010 was $136 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $143 million, up 1% from this weekend last year but down 16% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years. This is when the summer starts to lose its luster as we lurch into August, with the sure-things already released and a lot of filler to come.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7/29/11
Cowboys & Aliens UNI PG13 Daniel Craig Harrison Ford
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $43 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $106 Actual: $100
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75
The Smurfs SONY PG Neil Patrick Harris Jayma Mays
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $24 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $129 Actual: $143
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $421
Crazy, Stupid, Love. WB PG13 Steve Carell Ryan Gosling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
7/30/10
Dinner for Schmucks PAR/ DW PG13 Steve Carell Paul Rudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $74 Actual: $73
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore WB PG Christina Applegate Neil Patrick Harris
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $43
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $69
Charlie St. Cloud UNI PG13 Zac Effron Kim Bassinger
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $15
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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