July 3, 2012

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS July 6-8: Spider-Man Returns to the Scene

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Weekend #27 of 2012 looks pretty solid: $185 million for the top 12 films, up 27% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 22% from the four-year average for the weekend. Much of this increase can be attributed to the calendar and the unusual placement of July 4 on a Wednesday, having little effect on either surrounding weekend.

Opening at 4,318 theaters, The Amazing Spider-Man from Sony should average $14,800 per theater (for $64.0 million for the traditional Friday-Sunday period). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] This will be a mere follow-up to the $70 million the movie should earn Tuesday-Thursday (an estimated $25 million Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by $20 million Thursday). The reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 72% positive.  Amazing Spider-Man currently stands at a preliminary $280 million ShowbuzzDaily domestic estimate.

Opening at about 2,800 theaters on Friday, Savages from Universal should average $4,800 per theater (for $13.5 million Friday-Sunday). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are running 73% positive. Savages currently stands at a preliminary $45 million domestic estimate.

Opening Thursday at about 2,500 theaters, Katy Perry: Part of Me should average a woeful $4,300 per theater for the traditional weekend (for $10.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Another $4.5 million should be available Thursday.  Early reviews are surprisingly not horrible, currently 71% positive. Katy Perry has a preliminary $42 million domestic gross estimate.

July 6-8, 2012 Critics Positive Tuesday- Thursday Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Amazing Spider-Man
Sony PG13 72% 70.0 64.0 280
Savages Uni R 73% n/a 13.5 45
Katy Perry: Part of Me
LG PG 71% 4.5 10.5 42

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Ted will be the class of the returning films, attempting to hit $30 million in its second weekend.

RETURNING FILMS ($ millions)
July 6-8, 2012 Change vs Last Weekend Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Ted Uni -47% 28.9 171
Brave Dis -43% 19.4 221
Magic Mike WB -55% 17.8 129
TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG -58% 10.6 79
Madagascar 3 Par DW -41% 7.0 220
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni -30% 3.5 43
To Rome with Love +406% 3.5 n/a


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $152 million total, ranking 12th of 52 weeks. Last year (July 8-10) this weekend’s total was $146 million (while July 9-11, 2010 was $184 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $185 million, up 27% from this weekend last year and up 22% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years — although this weekend is a particularly difficult comparison because of the way July 4 bounces around the calendar.


This Weekend Last Two Years


Horrible Bosses WB R Jason Bateman Charlie Day
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $111 Actual: $117
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $92

Zookeeper SONY PG Kevin James Rosario Dawson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $71 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $89


Despicable Me UNI PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $211 Actual: $251
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $289

Predators FOX R Adrien Brody Topher Grace
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $56 Actual: $52
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

Posting from me is going to be a little spotty for several days, but Mitch Salem will keep the numbers and analysis and reviews flowing as best he can.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.