Weekend #24 of 2014 is looking like a very sturdy $201 million for the top 12 films this weekend, 31% above the norm for this weekend and 2% above the same weekend last year.
Opening at over 4,100 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), How to Train Your Dragon 2 from 20th Century Fox and production company DreamWorks Animation should average $16,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $69.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are extremely strong: 95% positive so far. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is on track for around $215 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $310 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $525 million. The original How to Train Your Dragon was released March 26, 2010 and grossed $217.6 million domestic, $277.3 million overseas and $494.9 million worldwide.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday, 22 Jump Street from Sony should average $19,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $58.0 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is also very strong: 94% positive so far. 22 Jump Street is on track for around $185 million domestic, with a potential for around another $90 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $275 million. The original 21 Jump Street was released March 16, 2012 and grossed $138.4 million domestic, $63.1 million overseas and $201.5 million worldwide.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND June 13-15, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | PG | 95% | 69.0 | 215 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | R | 94% | 58.0 | 185 | |
Among the holdovers, the trio of The Fault in Our Stars, Maleficent and X-Men: Days of Future Past will do significant business each none will challenge either of the two openers.
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RETURNING FILMS June 13-15, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Fault in Our Stars | Fox | -59% | 19.8 | 145 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | -49% | 17.5 | 210 | |
| Edge of Tomorrow | WB | -50% | 14.5 | 85 | |
| X-Men: Days of Future Past | Fox | -50% | 7.6 | 225 | |
| A Million Ways to Die in the West | Uni | -54% | 3.4 | 45 | |
| Godzilla | WB | -50% | 3.1 | 195 | |
| Neighbors | Uni | -46% | 2.9 | 154 | |
| Blended | WB | -50% | 2.1 | 45 | |
| Chef | OpenR | -31% | 1.8 | 21 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $154 million total, ranking 11th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $197 million (while 2012 was $123 million, 2011 was $147 million and 2010 was $191 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $201 million, 31% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but very close (+2%) to the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.14.2013
Man of Steel WB PG13 Henry Cavill Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $105 Actual: $117
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $305 Actual: $291
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $377
This Is the End Sony R James Franco Jonah Hill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $100 Actual: $101
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $25
Before Midnight Sony R Ethan Hawke Julie Delpy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $13 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
6.15.2012
That’s My Boy SONY R Adam Sandler Andy Samberg
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $45 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Rock of Ages WB PG13 Tom Cruise Russell Brand
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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