Weekend Box Office Predictions JUNE 20-22

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Weekend #25 of 2014 is looking like a limp $146 million for the top 12 films this weekend, 10% below the norm for this weekend and 37% below the same weekend last year, which featured two strong openers (Monsters University and World War Z).  This year’s two major openers are not the stuff of commercial greatness.

Opening at a modest 2,200+ theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Think Like a Man Too from Sony should average a very solid $16,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $35.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are nowhere to be found. Think Like a Man Too is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $5 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $100 million. The original Think Like a Man was released April 20, 2012, had a 53% positive review score at RottenTomatoes, and grossed $91.5 million domestic, $4.5 million overseas and $96.1 million worldwide.

Opening at over 3,100 theaters Friday, Jersey Boys from Warner Brothers and director Clint Eastwood should average a low $3,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $12.0 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is mediocre: only 56% positive so far. Jersey Boys is on track for around $34 million domestic, with a potential for around another $20 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $54 million.

Also opening from A24 is The Rover starring Robert Pattinson and Guy Pearce.  It will struggle to make the top 10 or top 12 with an opening of well under $2 million.