The 25th weekend of the year is looking like a very good $217 million for the top 12 films, well above the same weekend the last few years.
Opening at over 3,800 4,004 theaters Friday (just above the top 10% of theater counts), Monsters University from Pixar and Disney should average $21,100 per theater for the weekend (for an $80 million opening). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] The early reviews are positive at RottenTomatoes: 79% 77% positive overall (with top critics nearly identical at 80% a touch lower at 73% positive). Nonetheless, this reception is still several notches below the 96% positive score (and 90% positive with top critics) for Monsters, Inc. (released November 2, 2001). Monsters University should be on track for $255 million domestic, below the $289.9 million domestic for Monsters, Inc.
Opening at around 3,055 3,607 theaters today (putting it right at the top 10% of openings), World War Z from Paramount should average a decent $12,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $44.5 million opening). Early reviews are generally positive: 73% 68% positive overall but a wobbly 56% and a decent 74% positive with top critics. World War Z should be on course for $130 million domestic.
Expanding to around 500 650 theaters Friday, The Bling Ring from A24 (which brought us Spring Breakers earlier in the year) should average a mediocre $5,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $2.5 million opening semi-wide opening). Early reviews are somewhat positive: 62% 58% positive overall and a similar 56% 54% among top critics. The Bling Ring should finish with about $9 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND June 21-23, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Monsters University | Dis | PG13 | 77% | 80.0 | 255 | |
| World War Z | Par | R | 68% | 44.5 | 130 | |
| The Bling Ring | A24 | R | 58% | 2.5 | 9 | |
Man of Steel will be the dominant holdover, despite a hefty second weekend decline.
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RETURNING FILMS June 21-23, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Man of Steel | WB | -57% | 50.5 | 325 | |
| This Is the End | Sony | -42% | 12.0 | 91 | |
| Now You See Me | Summit | -39% | 6.8 | 114 | |
| Fast & Furious 6 | Uni | -50% | 4.8 | 244 | |
| The Internship | Fox | -50% | 3.6 | 45 | |
| Epic | Fox | -52% | 3.0 | 114 | |
| Star Trek Into Darkness | Par | -52% | 3.0 | 234 | |
| The Purge | Uni | -65% | 2.9 | 64 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $169 million total, ranking 7th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $157 million (while 2011 was $170 million and 2010 was $157 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $217 million, up 28% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 38% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.22.2012
Brave DIS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $58 Actual: $66
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $224 Actual: $237
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $298
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter FOX R Benjamin Walker Dominic Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $42 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $79
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World FOC R Steve Carell Keira Knightly
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
6.24.2011
Cars 2 DIS G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $65 Actual: $66
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $178 Actual: $191
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $368
Bad Teacher SONY R Cameron Diaz Jason Segal
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $32
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $96 Actual: $100
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $116
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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