Weekend #26 of 2014 (the halfway mark for the year already) is looking like $175 million for the top 12 films this weekend, 8% below the norm for this weekend and 4% below the same weekend last year, which featured two moderate openers rather than one big one (The Heat and White House Down). Although Transformers should have a decent opening, we don’t expect very strong legs and the weakest domestic total of the four Transformer films. But overseas business should bail it out and give Age of Extinction the second-highest worldwide gross of the series.
Opening at a big 4,000 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Transformers: Age of Extinction from Paramount should average a very good $25,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $100 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are straddling the middle looking pretty weak: 50% positive reviews so far (which would actually be the #2 best-reviewed Transformer film) now 24% positive in early reviews (in line with the last two films in the series). Transformers: Age of Extinction is on track for around $280 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $750 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $1.030 billion.
The previous installment Transformers: Dark of the Moon was released June 29, 2011, had a 36% positive review score at RottenTomatoes, and grossed $352.4 million domestic, $771.4 million overseas and $1.124 billion worldwide.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was released June 24, 2009, had a 19% positive review score at RottenTomatoes, and grossed $402.1 million domestic, $434.2 million overseas and $836.3 million worldwide.
Transformers was released July 3, 2007, had a 57% positive review score at RottenTomatoes, and grossed $319.2 million domestic, $390.5 million overseas and $709.7 million worldwide.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND June 27-29, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | PG13 | 24% | 100.0 | 280 | |
Among the holdovers, How to Train Your Dragon 2, 22 Jump Street and now Think Like a Man Too are the big producers (in the $13 million to $15 million range each).
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RETURNING FILMS June 27-29, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | -40% | 14.7 | 160 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | -47% | 14.7 | 181 | |
| Think Like a Man Too | Sony | -55% | 13.1 | 81 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | -38% | 8.0 | 222 | |
| Jersey Boys | WB | -44% | 7.5 | 37 | |
| Edge of Tomorrow | WB | -46% | 5.3 | 104 | |
| The Fault in Our Stars | Fox | -40% | 5.1 | 118 | |
| X-Men: Days of Future Past | Fox | -49% | 3.2 | 232 | |
| Chef | OpenR | -33% | 1.2 | 24 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $190 million total, ranking 4th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $183 million (while 2012 was $197 million, 2011 was $192 million and 2010 was $181 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $175 million, down -8% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down a small -4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.28.2013
The Heat Fox R Sandra Bullock Melissa McCarthy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $39
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $156 Actual: $159
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $70
White House Down Sony PG13 Channing Tatum Jamie Foxx
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $86 Actual: $73
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $132
6.29.2012
Ted Uni R Mark Wahlberg Mila Kunis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $54
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $213 Actual: $219
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $327
Magic Mike WB R Channing Tatum Matthew McConaughey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $30 Actual: $39
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $116 Actual: $114
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $54
Moonrise Kingdom Focus PG13 Bill Murray Edward Norton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG PG13 Tyler Perry Eugene Levy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
People Like Us Dis PG13 Chris Pine Elizabeth Banks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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