Weekend #26 of 2012 looks like another weak one: $157 million for the top 12 films, down 18% from last year’s comparable weekend and down 8% from the four-year average for the weekend. Some of this decline can be attributed to the calendar. July 4 fell on or close to the 26th weekend in previous years — this year, Independence Day falls on a Wednesday.
Opening at roughly 2,900 theaters, Magic Mike should average $10,300 per theater (for $29.7 million Friday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] A $10,000+ per theater opening would be fine any other time of the year, but this is the summer and the stakes and expectations are higher. The reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at 81% positive, very good for the male stripper comedy/drama starring Channing Tatum, suggesting the possibility of lower than normal declines in weekend two and three. Magic Mike currently stands at a preliminary $103 million ShowbuzzDaily domestic estimate.
Opening at about 3,000 theaters, Ted from Universal and the mind of Seth McFarlane should average $8,600 per theater (for $25.7 million Friday-Sunday). Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are running 72% positive. Ted currently stands at a preliminary $90 million domestic estimate.
Debuting at about 2,000 thetaers, Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection should average about $11,900 per theater for a $24.0 million opening weekend. As always, Tyler Perry is shielding his latest from those unkind critics. The preliminary final domestic estimate is $75 million. This would be the second highest Tyler Perry film with Madea — behind Madea Goes to Jail ($90.5 million in February 2009) but ahead of Madea’s Family Reunion ($63.3 million in February 2006), Madea’s Big Happy Family ($53.3 million in April 2011) and Diary of a Mad Black Woman ($50.6 million in February 2005).
Giving it the old college try at almost 2,000 theaters, People Like Us should average a woeful $2,400 per theater (for $4.9 million Friday-Sunday). Although it’s the only drama against a trio of comedies (and critics are very positive — currently 81% positive), the film feels really small and misplaced. People Like Us has a preliminary $22 million domestic gross estimate.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| June 29-July 1, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Magic Mike | WB | R | 81% | 29.7 | 103 | |
| Ted | Uni | R | 72% | 25.7 | 90 | |
| Madea’s Witness Protection | LG | PG13 | n/a | 24.0 | 75 | |
| People Like Us | Dis | PG13 | 81% | 4.9 | 22 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
As the three very different comedies duke it out this weekend, Pixar’s Brave should cruise to another first place finish this weekend, down an average 48% from its opening.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| June 29-July 1, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Brave | Dis | -48% | 34.7 | 220 | |
| Madagascar 3 | Par DW | -43% | 11.3 | 222 | |
| Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter | Fox | -60% | 6.5 | 40 | |
| Prometheus | Fox | -49% | 5.1 | 136 | |
| The Avengers | Dis | -35% | 4.7 | 609 | |
| Moonrise Kingdom | Foc Uni | +14% | 4.4 | n/a | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $170 million total, ranking 6th of 52 weeks. Last year (July 1-3) this weekend’s total was $192 million (while July 2-4, 2010 was $181 million, July 3-5, 2009 was $156 million, and July 4-6, 2008 was $153 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a mediocre $157 million, down 18% from this weekend last year and down 8% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years — although this weekend is a particularly difficult comparison because of the way July 4 bounces around the calendar.
This Weekend Last Two Years
7/1/11
Transformers: Dark of the Moon PAR/ DW PG13 ShianLaBeouf Rosie Huntington-Whiteley
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $82 Actual: $98
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $390 Actual: $352
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $771
Larry Crowne UNI PG13 Tom Hanks Julia Roberts
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $17
Monte Carlo FOX PG Selena Gomez Katie Cassidy
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
7/2/10
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse SUMMIT PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $92 Actual: $65
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $334 Actual: $300
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $393
The Last Airbender PAR PG Cliff Curtis Dev Patel
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $40
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $142 Actual: $132
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $187
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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