Weekend #23 of 2014 is looking like a pretty typical $149 million for the top 12 films this weekend, within 1% of the norm for this weekend and 4% above the same weekend last year.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Fault in Our Stars from 20th Century Fox should average $13,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $41.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are solid: 75% positive so far. The Fault in Our Stars is on track for around $125 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $75 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $200 million.
Opening at over 3,300 theaters Friday, Edge of Tomorrow from Warner Brothers should average $9,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $29.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is actually quite strong: 90% positive so far. Edge of Tomorrow is on track for around $90 million domestic, with a potential for around another $200 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $290 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND June 6-8, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Fault in Our Stars | Fox | PG13 | 75% | 41.5 | 125 | |
| Edge of Tomorrow | WB | PG13 | 90% | 29.5 | 90 | |
Among the holdovers, Maleficent is the top choice, while X-Men: Days of Future Past has one more weekend above $10 million.
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RETURNING FILMS June 6-8, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Maleficent | Dis | -56% | 30.6 | 193 | |
| X-Men: Days of Future Past | Fox | -50% | 16.3 | 239 | |
| A Million Ways to Die in the West | Uni | -57% | 7.3 | 57 | |
| Godzilla | WB | -51% | 5.9 | 205 | |
| Neighbors | Uni | -39% | 4.9 | 154 | |
| Blended | WB | -43% | 4.7 | 46 | |
| Chef | OpenR | +28% | 2.5 | 22 | |
| Million Dollar Arm | Dis | -46% | 2.0 | 40 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $150 million total, ranking 14th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $143 million (while 2012 was $174 million, 2011 was $132 million and 2010 was $145 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like an okay $149 million, 1% below the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but 4% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
6.7.2013
The Internship Fox PG13 Vince Vaughn Owen Wilson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $46 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $49
The Purge Uni R Ethan Hawke Lena Headey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $25
6.8.2012
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted PAR PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $49 Actual: $60
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $210 Actual: $216
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $526
Prometheus FOX R Noomi Rapace Michael Fassbender
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $53 Actual: $51
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $141 Actual: $126
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $277
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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