WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS June 7-9

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The 23rd weekend of the year is looking like a wobbly $127 million for the top 12 films, well under the same weekend the last few years.  Three out of four weekends in May were anchored by solid commercial films (Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness and Fast & Furious 6).  But the first two weeks of June look pretty thin (Now You See Me and After Earth last weekend and The Purge and The Internship this weekend).  Four movies that will top out at well below $100 million domestic — closer to $75 million each.  Over the last two years, this weekend offered Prometheus, Madagascar 3 and Super 8 (among others).  None of those three will be long remembered, but they averaged over $150 million domestic and over $300 million overseas each: exactly the kind of performance that keeps the Hollywood machine humming.

Opening at over 2,400 theaters Friday (a slightly below average theater count), The Purge a thriller from Universal should average $8,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $20 million opening).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  The early reviews are mixed at RottenTomatoes: 53% positive, which is not horrible for a thriller.  The Purge should be on course for $61 million domestic.

Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (a theater count somewhat above the 2,886 average the last two years), The Internship from 20th Century Fox should average a mediocre $5,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $16 million opening).  Early reviews are negative: only 33% positive so far and that number will probably drop over the next few days (just a hunch–for one, here’s Mitch Salem’s review).  The Internship should be on course for maybe $53 million domestic.  The television spots are stunningly unfunny, and even the film’s setting, Google, does not inspire confidence that laughs are in store.