The 11th weekend of 2013 looks like it will be off the pace of the last few years. The top 12 films Friday-Sunday should total $96 million, down 7% from the four-year average for this weekend. Two new movies will give it the old college try this weekend, and neither should excel.
Opening at about 3,100 theaters Friday, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone from Warner Brothers should average a soft $4,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.5 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are fairly weak (43% positive reviews so far), indicating the potential for fairly weak word of mouth. Mitch Salem’s review is here. Burt Wonderstone should be on course for $40 million domestic.
Opening at a below average 2,500 theaters Friday, The Call from Sony should average a soft $4,700 per theater for the weekend (for an $11.5 million opening weekend). No early reviews at RottenTomatoes at this time. The Call is on track for about $30 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 15-17, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Incredible Burt Wonderstone | WB | PG13 | 43% | 13.5 | 40 | |
| The Call | Sony | R | n/a | 11.5 | 30 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Oz the Great and Powerful remains the only game in town.
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RETURNING FILMS March 15-17, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Oz the Great and Powerful | Dis | -45% | 43.5 | 205 | |
| Jack the Giant Slayer | WB | -45% | 5.4 | 64 | |
| Identity Thief | Uni | -34% | 4.2 | 134 | |
| 21 and Over | Rel | -28% | 3.7 | 27 | |
| Snitch | Summit | -35% | 3.3 | 43 | |
| Dead Man Down | FilmDis | -48% | 2.8 | 11 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | -35% | 2.4 | 125 | |
| Escape from Planet Earth | Weins | -33% | 2.2 | 56 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $103 million total, ranking 39th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $98 million (while 2011 was $103 million and 2010 was $115 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $96 million, down 7% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and down 2% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
3.16.2012
21 Jump Street SONY R Jonah Hill Channing Tatum
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $126 Actual: $138
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $63
Friends with Kids ROAD R Jennifer Westfeldt Adam Scott
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
3.18.2011
Limitless REL PG13 Bradley Cooper Abbie Cornish
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $83 Actual: $79
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $78
The Lincoln Lawyer LG R Matthew McConaughey Ryan Phillippe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $17
Paul UNI R Simon Pegg Nick Frost
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $60
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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