WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS March 30-April 1

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>The 13th weekend of the year should be very strong: about $169 million for the top 12 films up 49% from last year’s comparable weekend and up 32% from the four-year average for this weekend.  Wrath of the Titans should open just below $40 million, far behind the pace of Clash of the Titans from two years ago.  And Mirror Mirror will struggle to get to $25 million.  Those wouldn’t be bad openings most weekends, but they will pale in comparison to The Hunger Games.  Even if it’s down more than 50% in weekend two, The Hunger Games will just be too big a force in the marketplace to take down.           

Opening at over 3,500 theaters, Wrath of the Titans from Warner Brothers should average a solid $11,200 per theater (for $39.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  But Wrath is not Hunger Games and not even in the same league as its father, Clash of the Titans, which opened this same weekend in 2010 with $61.2 million against the second weekend of How to Train Your Dragon.  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a soft 42% positive.  Wrath of the Titans is on track for a preliminary $106 million domestic, compared to $163.1 million for Clash of the Titans.            

Opening at around 3,200 theaters, Mirror Mirror from Relativity should average a just okay $7,500 per theater (for $24.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a very good 86% positive, but the television commercials for this Julia Roberts fairy tale really do not make the film look special.  Mirror Mirror is on track for a preliminary $71 million domestic.            

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
March 30-April 1                 Positive   Weekend   Total*

Wrath of the Titans      WB  PG13   42%      $39.5    $106
Mirror Mirror           Rel  PG     86%      $24.0    $ 71

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Hunger Games should comfortably hold on to the #1 spot in its second weekend, down 54% to a sturdy $70+ million.  If that fall-off is closer to -50% or even -49%, even bigger things are ahead for the franchise.  After 21 Jump Street and The Lorax, a whole lot of films round out the top 12 with paltry $1 million weekends.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
March 30-April 1                vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
The Hunger Games         LG       -54%      $70.5     $395

21 Jump Street           Sony     -41%      $12.0     $125
The Lorax                Uni      -40%      $ 8.0     $210
John Carter              Dis      -57%      $ 2.2     $ 76

A Thousand Words         Par      -46%      $ 1.1     $ 15

October Baby             5&2      —-      $ 1.0     $ —

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $128 million total, ranking 22nd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $114 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $169 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $169 million, up a big 49% from this weekend last year and up 32% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.             

This Weekend Last Two Years