WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS March 8-10

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The 10th weekend of 2013 looks to be the first up weekend after six down weekends in a row.  The top 12 films Friday-Sunday should total $128 million, up 6 to 11% from the same weekend the last few years.  Keep in mind this is the weekend that has given us John Carter, Battle: Los Angeles and Mars Needs Moms the last few years.  We are thinking Oz the Great and Powerful will open better than John Carter did, but it still has virtually no chance of making a profit for Disney unless overseas audiences go crazy for James Franco as the Wizard of Oz.

Opening at about 3,700 theaters Friday, Oz the Great and Powerful from Disney should average a high $20,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $75 million opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are only mildly positive (62% positive reviews so far), indicating the potential for only mediocre word of mouth and playability.  Mitch Salem’s review is here.  Oz the Great and Powerful should be on course for $215 million domestic.  If Oz makes another $250 overseas, Disney will keep maybe $230 million after splits with distributors.  That should almost cover the cost of making the film, meaning the international marketing of $100+ million is subtracted right off the Disney bottom line.

Opening at 2,175 theaters Friday, Dead Man Down from FilmDistrict should average a bad $2,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $5.5 million opening weekend).  No early reviews at RottenTomatoes at this time.  Dead Man Down is on track for $11 million domestic.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Still limited business from the holdovers.  

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $116 million total, ranking 32nd of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $121 million (while 2011 was $118 million and 2010 was $136 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly decent $128 million, up 11% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 6% from the same weekend last year.   

This Weekend Last Two Years

3.9.2012

John Carter DIS PG13 Taylor Kitsch Lynn Collins
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $85 Actual: $73
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $210

Silent House OPENROAD R Elizabeth Olsen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

A Thousand Words PAR PG13 Eddie Murphy Kerry Washington
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $15 Actual: $18
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2

3.11.2011

Battle: Los Angeles SONY PG13 Aaron Eckhart Michelle Rodriguez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $91 Actual: $84
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $128

Red Riding Hood WB PG13 Amanda Seyfried Gary Oldman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $52

Mars Needs Moms DIS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $18

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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