Weekend #22 of 2014 is looking like a solid $172 million for the top 12 films this weekend, 26% above the norm for this weekend and 7% above the same weekend last year.
Opening at over 3,800 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Maleficent from Disney should average $16,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $62.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are mediocre: 55% positive so far. Maleficent is on track for around $170 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $280 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $450 million — not bad for a film that looks like as visually arresting as a garden variety Once Upon a Time episode.
Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday, A Million Ways to Die in the West from Universal should average $9,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $28.0 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is weak: only 35% positive so far. A Million Ways to Die in the West is on track for around $90 million domestic, with a potential for around another $30 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $120 million. This is no Ted.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 30-June 1, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Maleficent | Dis | PG | 55% | 62.0 | 170 | |
| A Million Ways to Die in the West | Uni | R | 35% | 28.0 | 90 | |
Among the holdovers, X-Men: Days of Future Past is the top choice, headed for a probable 2nd place overall this weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS May 30-June 1, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| X-Men: Days of Future Past | Fox | -58% | 38.5 | 265 | |
| Godzilla | WB | -57% | 13.2 | 215 | |
| Neighbors | Uni | -49% | 7.2 | 153 | |
| Blended | WB | -50% | 7.1 | 42 | |
| Million Dollar Arm | Dis | -41% | 4.1 | 39 | |
| The Amazing Spider-Man 2 | Sony | -53% | 3.7 | 201 | |
| The Other Woman | Fox | -45% | 2.1 | 88 | |
| Chef | OpenR | -13% | 2.0 | n/a | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $137 million total, ranking 21st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $161 million (while 2012 was $135 million, 2011 was $154 million and 2010 was $122 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a solid $172 million, 26% above the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and 7% above the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
5.31.2013
Now You See Me LG/Sum PG13 Jesse Eisenberg Isla Fisher
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $110 Actual: $118
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $234
After Earth Sony PG13 Will Smith Jaden Smith
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $65 Actual: $61
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $183
6.1.2012
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni PG13 Charlize Theron Chris Hemsworth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $152 Actual: $155
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $241
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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