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Thor appears to be headed for a solid opening but not enough to push the weekend up versus last year (when Iron Man 2 opened huge). Two other openers, both romantic comedies, should have minimal impact.
Opening at over 3,500 theaters, Thor should average a very good $19,000 per theater (for $67 million total). Although this is a very solid opening, it will be compared to Iron Man 2‘s $128 million opening weekend ($29,252 average at 4,380 theaters). After three up weekends in a row, the box office should be down again this weekend. Nonetheless, Thor currently boasts an 88% positive review number at RottenTomatoes, suggesting the film could play longer than most comic/ action films.
The other opening films, two comedies aimed at women, should have minimal impact. Playing at fewer theaters (about 1,900), Jumping the Broom should average $5,400 (slightly above the average number for all wide-release films). With a largely African-American cast, this film has the potential to beat a modest $10 million opening weekend forecast if it clicks with African-Americans, a very loyal movie audience segment. In contrast, Something Borrowed should average only $3,900 at 2,900 theaters. This film feels like it is very likely to hit its $11 million forecast but then go away very quickly.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
May 6-8 Positive Weekend Total*
.
Thor Par PG13 88% $67 $195
Something Borrowed WB PG13 16% $11 $ 24
Jumping the Broom Sony PG13 33% $10 $ 28
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Fast Five is the one returning film looking to have an impact this weekend. However, the 56% decline in its second weekend suggests the action film will not have an unusually long play in theaters. Nonetheless, an estimated $185 million total domestic gross is nothing to scoff at, especially when paired with huge international numbers. (We will have updated international numbers Monday or Tuesday). The other returning films appear to be headed for weekends below $10 million.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Fast Five Uni -56% $38 $185
Rio Fox -42% $ 9 $150
Water for Elephants Fox -35% $ 6 $ 57
Madea’s Big Happy Fam. LG -56% $ 4.5 $ 61
Hoodwinked Too! Weins -38% $ 2.5 $ 7
Prom Dis -47% $ 2.5 $ 11
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $132 million total, ranking 19th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend’s total was $171 million, and May 8-10, 2009 was $143 million. This weekend is looking like $155 million: the first down weekend in four weeks.
This Weekend Last Two Years
Traditionally, the first weekend in May supports one huge movie to kick off “summer”, with a few much smaller films going along for the ride.
5.7.10
Iron Man 2 PAR PG13 Robert Downey Jr Gwyneth Paltrow
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $155 Actual: $128
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $327 Actual: $312
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $310
Babies UNI PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
5.8.09
Star Trek PAR PG13 Chris Pine Zachary Quinto
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $67 Actual: $75
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $261 Actual: $258
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $127
Next Day Air SUMMIT R Donald Faison Mos Def
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $10
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday’s actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have a complete wrap-up based on the actual full-weekend numbers.
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