The 47th weekend of the year is looking like $238 million for the top 12 films, just about where the weekend before Thanksgiving should be.
Opening at over 4,100 theaters Friday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Hunger Games: Catching Fire from Lionsgate/Summit should average a superior $40,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $167 million opening three-day weekend). This $40,000+ per theater opening weekend average is in the same league as Iron Man 3 back in May. [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Early reviews are very positive at RottenTomatoes: 93% positive so far. Hunger Games: Catching Fire is on track for $415 million domestic, quite close to the $408.0 million domestic total for The Hunger Games which opened with $152.5 million March 23-25, 2012.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, Delivery Man from Disney should average a sub-par $4,200 per theater for the weekend (for a $12.0 million opening three-day weekend). Early reviews are tepid: only 42% positive so far. Delivery Man is on track for $31 million domestic.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND November 22-24, 2013 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | PG13 | 93% | 167.0 | 415 | |
| Delivery Man | Dis | PG13 | 42% | 12.0 | 31 | |
It’s all about Hunger Games this weekend. The top holdovers (Thor: Dark World and Best Man Holiday) are going to lead the way with around $15 million each. Everything else is looking like $5 million weekends or less.
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RETURNING FILMS November 22-24, 2013 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | -55% | 16.6 | 230 | |
| Best Man Holiday | Uni | -51% | 14.8 | 91 | |
| Last Vegas | CBS | -37% | 5.3 | 67 | |
| Free Birds | Rel | -41% | 4.8 | 60 | |
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa | Par | -50% | 3.7 | 110 | |
| Gravity | WB | -39% | 3.7 | 261 | |
| 12 Years a Slave | Fox S | -23% | 3.6 | 44 | |
| Ender’s Game | LG/Sum | -58% | 2.7 | 65 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the weekend before Thanksgiving have averaged $223 million total, ranking 1st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $242 million (while 2011 was $215 million and 2010 was $186 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $238 million, up 7% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down a small 2% from the comparable weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.16.2012
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 SUMMIT PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $147 Actual: $141
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $318 Actual: $292
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $537
Lincoln DIS PG13 Daniel Day-Lewis Sally Field
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $142 Actual: $182
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $93
11.18.2011
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 SUMMIT PG13 Robert Pattinson Kristen Stewart
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $149 Actual: $138
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $303 Actual: $281
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $424
Happy Feet Two WB PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $86
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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