WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS November 23-25

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This weekend is solid but definitely cooler than last weekend’s torrid pace:  $180 million for the top 12 films this Friday-Sunday, up 10% from a typical fourth weekend in November.  The final Twilight installment will remain at the top of the chart this weekend, while Skyfall’s third weekend will challenge the family-friendly Rise of the Guardians for the #2 spot.  Life of Pi and Red Dawn will struggle to be noticed in the busy holiday weekend. 

Opening at 3,653 theaters Wednesday, Rise of the Guardians from Paramount/DreamWorks should average an okay $8,100 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $29.5 million opening weekend).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  Over the first five days (Wednesday-Sunday), Rise of the Guardians should total $43 million.  Critics are positive so far (76% positive at RottenTomatoes)–Mitch Salem’s review is here.  We are projecting the animated film will gross $140 million domestic.

Opening at 2,700 theaters Wednesday, Life of Pi from 20th Century Fox and director Ang Lee should average a mediocre $5,400 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $14.5 million opening three-day weekend and $21 million from Wednesday-Sunday).  Critics are enthusiastic (83% positive so far at RottenTomatoes)–see Mitch Salem’s review here— but the film will struggle to cross into a mainstream audience.  We are projecting Life of Pi will hit $60 million domestic.

Opening at 2,725 theaters Wednesday, Red Dawn from FilmDistrict should average a sub-par $4,400 per theater for the traditional three-day weekend (for a $12.0 million opening weekend and $18 million Wednesday-Sunday).  Critics are dismissive (14% positive at RottenTomatoes — far lower than the original Red Dawn‘s surprising 53% positive in 1984).  Red Dawn will exit theaters quickly and end with maybe $30 million domestic.  The original Red Dawn with Patrick Swayze, Jennifer Grey and C. Thomas Howell grossed $38.4 million domestic in 1984 dollars, the equivalent of almost $91 million today.

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 will fall at a dizzying rate in its second weekend but remain at the top of the heap.  The other major holdovers should have better than average drops this weekend.

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $164 million total, ranking 7th of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $155 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $171 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $180 million, up 10% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 16% from the same weekend last year.   

This Weekend Last Two Years

11.25.2011

The Muppets DIS PG Jason Segel Amy Adams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $84 Actual: $88
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $70

Arthur Christmas SONY PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $47 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101

Hugo PAR PG Sacha Baron Cohen Richard Griffiths
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $49 Actual: $74
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $111

The Descendants FOX R George Clooney Judy Greer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $93

11.26.2010

Tangled DIS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $49
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $147 Actual: $201
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $390

Faster CBS R Billy Bob Thornton Maggie Grace
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $23
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $12

Burlesque SONY PG13 Christina Aguilera Cher
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $39
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $50

Love and Other Drugs FOX R Jake Gyllenhaal Anne Hathaway
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $36 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $70

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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